Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Is Big Better? (Strategy of the NBA Draft Part 2)


2010 NBA Draft

Player: Derrick Favors, 10.9 PTS, 7.2 BOARDS, 23.7 WS, 3rd Pick to Toronto 

We’re quick to forget about a lot of people. If you would have asked me if Derrick Favors was still playing in the league before this article I would have had to really think about it. I guess if he’s playing in Utah it is kind of like not playing in the NBA but that’s a whole other story. Just ask Enes Kanter. Favors has quietly carved out a nice little stat line with the Jazz the past few years. He’s close to a double, double and him and John Wall have close to the same number of win shares (25.9 as compared to 23.7). He needs to get closer to being a close range 50% shooter and try to get some semblance of a mid range game (22% last year) but, there’s only so much you can ask. For the big men of today and what they’re being asked to do, his numbers are right there. He was lucky to have come out in 2010, as a guy like him doesn’t get taken third in drafts now-a-days.

Player: DeMarcus Cousins, 18.9 PTS, 10.6 BOARDS, 23.6 WS, 5TH Pick Sacramento Kings

A polarizing figure due to his personality but no one can argue that he is an All-Star quality player year in and year out. No one can argue his skill set and I think the attitude gets a bit overblown. I would probably act like Cousins if I had to survive in an organization as dysfunctional as the Sacramento Kings. Any team that could potentially chose to have three different head coaches in less than a year should be taken over by the NBA for gross incompetence. Some might say he wouldn’t put up these numbers if he wasn’t on the Kings but I see skills that would translate anywhere. It’s not his fault he is the vocal point of a team and can’t find anyone else who can make a shot. If the basketball Gods are good, the Lakers will find a way to land him.

Player: Greg Monroe, 14.3 PTS, 9.2 BOARDS, 7th Pick Detroit Pistons

Another guy who I would have loved to see on the Lakers and who would be best served parting ways with his current organization (the Bucks though? Really??? Just kinding. I’d pick them over the Lakers too). They tried and I think, with Stan the Man at the helm, Detroit will eventually turn it around but if you don’t want to start a guy like Greg Monroe, than there’s no point in keeping him. Monroe has the numbers to make him an attractive commodity and fits the mold of what big men are being asked to do now-a-days. His game doesn’t venture to far from the basket and you’d like for him to be more of a presence on the offensive boards but he will be a good complimentary piece in Milwaukee.  Sadly he won’t provide seventh pick value for the original team but I could see him as the player that gets the Bucks to the second round of the playoffs and maybe to contenders in three years.

2011 NBA Draft

Player: Enes Kanter, 10.4 PTS, 8.4 BOARDS, 12.7 WS, 3rd Pick Utah Jazz

The guy doesn’t like venturing three feet or more from the basket and he’s not a big fan of Utah as previously mentioned and...I think guys like this, like Jahill Okafor or a Joel Embid, will continue to slip little by little as more and more drafts unfold. The big man is becoming more versatile and teams want him to be more of a Swiss Army Knife than a one trick, back to the basket pony. Kanter is close to a double double and does fit into a needed role but it is a role that will be featured less and less as the game gets faster and spreads out more. But as long as he can board, he’ll still get a paycheck.

Player: Tristan Thompson, 10.1 PTS, 8.4 BOARDS, 18.9 WS, 4th Pick Cleveland Cavaliers

Five years, 80 million. That’s what a year in the playoffs averaging 10.8 boards and 9.6 pts will get you. Good for Thompson to take advantage of a Kevin Love injury and show his defensive prowess. That’s about the only thing he has on Love. He saw his point’s average dip this year but that’s bound to happen with Love and Lebron coming on and he might just play better without having to be relied upon as a scoring threat. It helps too that he’ll have a healthy Irving and James to set him up. It will be interesting to see how he and Love coexist on a Cavs team that needs to stay healthy to contend with the West.

Player: Jonas Valanciunas, 10.9 PTS, 8.7 Boards, 5th Pick to the Toronto Raptors

Everyone needs to start taking notice for the basketball team forming north of the boarder. DeRozen, Lowry and this sneaky good Valanciunas are forming a core that will be right there with the Bulls for second best in the East and may be able to catch the Cavs if Lebron ever starts showing his minutes and age. If you want to win a few bucks, bet your buddies that he was a top five pick and I’m sure one of them will say no. His point totals have risen along with his FG percentage the past three years and his total boards have increased as well. Now, should Kawhi Leonard, picked at 15, have been a top 10 pick? It depends on how you value these guys. I’m thinking there’s less of these big men who are capable of giving you a double-double a night so you might have to reach to get one. This guy, though, has grown to into one of the top five players from this draft.

2012 NBA Draft

Player: Anthony Davis, 19.7 PTS, 9.5 BOARDS, 30.5 WS, 1st Pick to the then New Orleans Hornets

For a number one pick, Davis has exceeded expectations. No one could have predicted the meteoric rise of the once lengthy, skinny kid from Chicago. His point totals have jumped from 13.5 his first season to 24.4 this past year and he’s averaging nearly three blocks a game. As the focal point for the Pelicans, he has taken them from the lottery to 8th Place in the West and doesn’t look to be slowing down. He’s the type of player that needs one more superstar to make the team a legit contender and I’m sure it won’t be tough to convince someone to come play with him (KD?? RW??).  Davis has everything you want out of a superstar big man, 75 % when close to the basket and a developing mid range that is close to 50%. People wouldn’t mind drafting big men if they knew they were getting the next Davis. The scary thing is, he’s only 22. 

Player: Andre Drummond, 12.1 PTS, 11.8 BOARDS, 22 WS, 9TH Pick to the Detroit Pistons

You have to remind yourself that Drummond is only 21. It seems like he’s been around for so long or maybe it’s just the years in Detroit wearing on him. He’s a classic post player but can carve out a nice spot in this league with rebounding, stout defense, and a few buckets a game. Him and Monroe have been sheltered in the losing cocoon of Detroit and are both due to get a big payday because of their numbers. Monroe won’t be staying in Motown but maybe Stan Van Gundy can work his magic and convince Drummond that he can be a part of something special and a main centerpiece. He’s not a bad building block to have.

2013 NBA Draft

Player: Nerlens Noel, 9.9 PTS, 8.1 BOARDS, 6TH Pick New Orleans Hornets

Any draft is basically a crapshoot and no other draft epitomized that more than the 2013 NBA Draft.  The rookie of the year was the 11th pick and the best guy from the draft might end up being the 6th pick and the man who didn’t even play the 2013-2014 season. Noel was the second of four Kentucky big men to go in the top ten within the best four drafts and it seems like that school is finding a way to develop long, athletic defensive big man (if you can all one year in school developing). They might not all develop the same offensive prowess as an Anthony Davis but they all fall into the rim protector that more teams want their bigs to be. Teams are finding a way to get the scoring from somewhere else. Whatever the Sixers are doing, they need to make it a point to hold on to Noel. He was long touted as the number 1 prospect in this draft and if not for injury probably would have gone there. It’s too early to call but it seems that people might look back on this draft and wonder how Noel slipped to being picked after the likes of Cody Zeller, Otto Potter and Alex Len.

2014 NBA Draft

It’s all too early to tell. This draft has two potential guys who could start filling up the state sheet in Jabari Parker and Julius Randle but we’ll have to see how they recover from injury. They aren’t the classic big men as well as they’re a little smaller and more in the power forward mold but they could still develop into solid players. Parker especially has the offensive skill set to do something special in Milwaukee and no one can forget the tenacity Randle showed during the 2014 NCAA Tournament. 

                                                                                                                                                                                             

The names have changed, from Bynum to Oden to Davis back to Griffin and even Jahill Okafor but at the end of the day the largest change has been in the expectations surrounding the leagues big men. Teams used to want that special breed that could average 20 and 10 and it took them a while to realize how rare and special a Duncan or an O’Neal was. A big man now-a-days will only be asked to do this in special cases but it still does not make a low double double (10 PTS and 10 BOARDS) less valuable.  The world’s full of sharpshooters or someone who can give you 18 points a night but there’s less and less players coming through that will throw elbows to keep the play alive. I’d say their more valuable than someone who’s just going to hang out in the corner but as with any NBA Draft, it’s all up in the air.

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