With any story you begin with a rough draft. This is usually
a broad stroke of what you want out of the story and is rarely the end product
that you get after rewriting, rewriting, rewriting and...you get the picture.
The same can be said for any fantasy football draft that you’ll be
participating in. Sure, if you’re in a ten team league maybe five out of those
ten picks in the first round will live up to the hype but your team at the end
of the year will most likely be something completely different than you thought
it would be. But, if you’re consistent and have a set idea of the broad
characteristics you want out of your team, you will be happy with your draft
and eventually your end of year team. You will be able to say that you got the
most out of where you drafted and the ever infamous waiver wire.
Now, everyone has their rough drafts that they love to read
and dissect. I’m a big Matthew Berry and Michael Fabino fan and if I didn’t
have work I could spend an unhealthy amount of time dissecting my each and
every move depending on where I’m sitting in the draft. But, no one has that
time unless it’s their job or their down to alienate all of their friends (who
happen to be in the same league). I say do a few mock drafts at different
positions, read a few articles, maybe even come up with a top 100 ranking but,
don’t get all nerdy on it. The only thing I’m going to stand by with this mock
draft is the awesome team names (less than 15 characters). Read, think about the picks and let me know
what you think. Most of the fun of the draft
is in the debate.
- The Gronkiees- Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks
The Gronkiees, an ode to The
Monkeys or a great 80’s movie, are in a tough spot. The pick will be open for
debate and is the most wide open number one pick in recent memory. Last year AP
was clearly the guy, coming off his almost record breaking season and seeming
inhuman to most. This year does not offer that clear cut of a pick like an AP
or LT. That’s what makes RB such a special position: it’s scarcity of reliable
guys. It’s the reason the overall point totals don’t correspond to draft
position. If that were the case, Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck would go 1 and
2.
This year, there are five RBs that
will probably go within the first six picks (because someone is going to reach
and choose Antonio Brown). After the top five guys, the drop off is unlike any
other position. It’s tempting to throw Levon Bell in here but in any
uber-competitive league the difference between the playoffs can be very small
and the two game suspension might not be something you can afford. That’s why
you go with Mr. Reliable. Lynch is a
work horse, who is the bane of any Packer fans existence (that NFC championship
game will stick with me until I die). He’s played in all 16 games the past
three seasons and has only missed 5 games within the past five seasons. If it
means anything to you, he’s 29 and hasn’t reached that voodoo age of 30 where
everyone starts yelling stay away! I
like guys who you know are going to get the majority of carries and who have
the running style to stay in at the goal line. The ‘Hawks will be back with extra
motivated this year and Lynch will be out to show why they don’t have to pay
Wilson Rodgers like money.
2. CauseIWasBlount-
Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs
There’s got to be a name that will
give us an ode to the possible anthem for Millennials and one that points at
the other man in the car with LeVon Bell hot boxing it up. It would be ironic
if Bell was taken here, especially with this name, but it wouldn’t be at all
surprisingly. If not for the two game suspension he’s going in the top three at
least. But, CauseIWasBlount plays this pick sober and goes with another Mr.
Reliable candidate. Yes, you’re going to have to put up with the puzzling play
calling of Andy Reid as any sane person knows Charles should touch the ball on every play (said every
frustrated fantasy owner every) but there’s no RB who is relied upon more in
their offense than Charles. Just because the Chiefs got Maclin doesn’t mean
Alex Smith is going to start slinging the ball left and right. This is still
going to be Charles’s offense and Smith is still going to be checking down and
watching Charles do his thing. I look for Reid to utilize him a little more in the
run game and for Charles to have another top ten RB season.
- 12thDouchers-Eddie
Lacy, RB, Packers
Here LeVon Bell has to start to
coming into consideration if only from a value standpoint. Where Bell goes will
dictate the whole first round as it will signify how RBs are valued in your
league. This 12th Man deprecating team has had too many slow starts
to a season to want their number 1 RB to be out the first two games so they go
with a rising star. As pointed out
before, I think five guys are in the running for number one and all have their
pros and cons. Lacy came into the league as a bell cow and his tough uphill
running style complimented the high flying aerial attack of the Packers well.
He averaged 4.6 yards a carry last year but, more importantly, turned into a
legitimate receiving threat out of the backfield. Lacy’s 1,139 yards out of the backfield
aren’t going to jump out but his 457 receiving yards definitely stand out and
are the main reason why he should be more heavily wanted than a Adrian
Peterson. It’s no accident that one of the best RBs happens to be with the best
QB.
4. 1.21JJWatts-
Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
There won’t be as stupendous of a reaction
as a patent Doc Brown exclamation when he goes off the board but be sure that
if you take Peterson you will do it with a little more heightened nerves than
any other RB in the first round. The argument goes both ways: he practically
didn’t play last year so he’s fresh and ready or....the drop off was already
happening and it’s just going to continue. Coming off that knee injury, Adrian
Peterson legitimately could be labeled as alien, not of this world, possessing
something that had never, ever been seen before. He averaged six yards a carry
and led the Vikings to the playoffs. Literally, he carried them on his back.
Coming off that out of this world year he still averaged 4.5 yards a pop over
14 played games. I wouldn’t call that a drop off but a return to consistency. Good
running backs have out of this world years: Jim Brown 1963, Walter Payton 1977,
Barry Sanders 1997, Emmitt Smith 1995, LaDainian Tomlinson 2006 but what makes
all of these guys and AP great is that they revert back to consistency barring
injury. LT followed his year up with 1,474, Jim Brown with 1,446, Walter Payton
with 1,395 and plenty of people would not be surprised if AP returned to 1,400
and top 5 RB status. Hell, writing this I might just be convincing myself he
should be number 1. These top five guys are really all interchangeable and
that’s what makes you question a RB coming back after one year off.
5. HouseManning-Le’Veon
Bell, RB Steelers
The team with the subtle Game of Thrones
reference doesn’t want to end up with a subpar RB1 more RB2 and goes with the
trend. This is a possible position to maybe reach and you could start to see
people talk themselves into taking an Antonio Brown or even a Demaryius Thomas
but, at five, you might not like your RB options when the second round comes
up. With Bell, you get a possible number
1 pick at 5 and there’s nothing like good value. At five you’re in a good
position of getting an Odell Beckham Jr. or even a Jordy Nelson in the second
round and it’s paramount to have two number ones at RB and WR as you can wait a
while to get a serviceable QB1. There’s
such a gap between the potential of Bell and the next RB Arian Foster that the
two game suspension should not concern you.
6. SippinFortes-
Antonio Brown, WR Steelers
With the uncertainity surrounding Arian
Foster, no other running back is worthy of being chosen before Mr. Brown. This
is still a tricky selection because the seventh, eighth, ninth, tenth, eleventh
and twelfth spots might just over draft out of free of losing out on some RBs and
your reach might turn out to be catastrophic or the Brown selection could set
up a run on WR1 and LeSean McCoy could be sitting there when it snakes back
around to the sixth spot. The way I would approach this is ask yourself if
you’d rather lose out on C.J. Anderson, Matt Forte, DeMarco Murray and LeSean
McCoy or on Brown, Demaryius, Bryant, or Odell Beckham? I’d rather not get
those RB’s and maybe get two number one WR and reach a little on a guy like
Alfred Morris or Mark Ingram. The top flight WRs are similar to the top RBs
where in there are few consistent performers and more candidates that are boom
or bust. That’s why a consistent, top flight guy like Brown makes sense over a
hit or miss C.J. Anderson or a new team LeSean McCoy.
7.
TheManizelGuild- Matt Forte, RB Bears
They could overreact a little, cry over the
tough draft spot and pick a WR after seeing Brown go or they block out the
opinions, haters and go with a good old faithful in Mr. Forte. It would be tough here not to go with a Demaryius
Thomas but it would also be tough to not have an RB you like. You have to ask
yourself if you think any of those other WRs are as elite as Brown. I think
not, but we agree to disagree. Drafting at these particular spots all come down
to how much success who’ve had with teams where you had weaker RBs and strength
in other positions. With the game moving more toward the pass, this decision
might get easier in the future but now it’s still tough. Forte gives you
consistency and is in an offense that doesn’t want to overly rely on their
mistake prone QB. I’ll be interested to see what his work load stays at and
whether or not that plunges his points but at number 8 he’s worth a draft based
he’s consistently finished as a top 10 RB.
8. BadBrady- LeSean McCoy, RB, Bills
First it was CallMeBrady and now we have to
get a deflategate/Taylor Swift name in here to describe the leagues pretty
boy. Surprisingly the T. Swift loving
Fantasy Football Fan does not get too emotional or broken up about this
pick. At the end of the year there
weren’t too many people out there who would have thought Foles and McCoy would
be off the Eagles. I would be surprised if Chip Kelly even thought that. Maybe
he just did it to put all us fantasy players in quite the predicament, asking the
same question that any offensive player who played for Chip in college got when
coming into the draft: are the numbers all based on the system? Shady enjoyed
his best fantasy year under Chip and followed it up with a top 15 RB season
last year. His receiving yards fell off in a big way (539 to 155) and it didn’t
help that Foles got hurt and Mark Sanchez had to steer the ship for a while.
The QB situation in Buffalo is murky and worse than what he had in Philly last
year but that could play into McCoy’s favor. I see Shady being more of a vocal
point in the Bills attack than a generic cog that RBs seem to become in Chip
Kelly’s system. Based off past performance and expected volume, Shady could end
up being a steal this late in the first round.
9.
ItWasABrees-
C.J. Anderson, RB Broncos
It’s tough to balance between drafting
based off potential and proven track record. C.J. Anderson makes this
especially tough. He’s in a new,
friendly Gary Kubiak system and pushed plenty of teams into the Fantasy playoffs
as the waiver pickup of the year last year, going over 160 yards rushing for
two weeks against the Dolphins and Chiefs in weeks 11 and 12. If there’s anyone
who stands to charge up plenty of boards between now and September it is
definitely CJ Anderson. I think at this spot he’s a good value pick but I
wouldn’t take him any higher. A good half year does not make one a fantasy
star.
10. GronksFollies- DeMarco Murray, RB, Eagles
Murray was the undisputed top RB
last year and, if he would have stayed with the ‘Boys, might be one of your top
5 RBs because of that O-line. The work load is concerning and this will be a
true measure of Murray as a RB to see how he follows up a plus 1800 rushing
yard season. You’re not going to see as many attempts out of him with the
loaded Eagles back field and it will be tricky for the first few weeks to trust
that Chip Kelly will do anything you think he’s going to do. The risk is worth
the reward in this case because you have a potential RB1 at 11 and you can get
a legit WR1 when it swings back around to you. The better combo is a Murray and
Julio Jones as opposed to a Julio and Lamar Miller.
11.
DaltonHasNoSoul-
Jeremy Hill, RB, Bengals
South Park fans will appreciate this team
name. These last two spots are where it gets interesting, especially at eleven.
With the snack draft there is now only one person with two picks between your
first and second picks. This spot might be the novice of the league or it could
be the consistent, two RBs, WR and QB guy. The characteristics and preferences
of the number 12 guy or lady will definitely have to be considered if you’re at
11 as you’ll both be looking at the same players. If it’s me at 12 I’m looking RB and WR because
the drop off on RB is starting to get steep.
That’s why at 11, you need to reach for an RB. Hill has been going early second round and,
even though he is paired with Gio Bernard, still has a good shot to put up RB1
numbers as a north-south runner who will get plenty of goal line chances. Even
with the split backfield, Hill managed to go for 1124 yards and 9 TDs which was
good for the 10th best RB in NFL.com fantasy. It’s great value at
this point to get a guy who has the capability for a top 5 finish.
12. JPPsIndex-
Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys
Fireworks can bring about good fantasy
names. After scoring a new 5 year, 70 million dollar Dez is a Cowboy for the
foreseeable future and Tony Romo is mighty happy. Demaryius Thomas might strike
some as a good pick here but I like the ‘Boys as a better team this year and
when it’s that close, you go with the better team. Bryant has a proven track
record of going over 1300 receiving yards and 12 or more TDs the past three years
and the ‘Boys get a slate of inter-conference games against the NFC South (3 of
the four teams were in the bottom ten in passing yards allowed last year). I also think that the Broncos offense is
going to scale back to being more balanced, much like the Cowboys, thus
eliminating more “shots on goal” for Manning to Thomas. It comes down to
opinion when you have two players that are so close and my bet is on Romo to
Bryant to be the better combo.
13. JPPsIndex-
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
Man, man, man...sometimes being the last
pick really sucks. All of the good RBs are gone and you’re looking at a long, 23
picks until you choose twice again. It makes this twelve spot a curse and a
blessing. That’s why you should go for a number one player at another position
instead of reaching for an RB. In my
mind it’s between Gronk and A-Rod now and you have to go with the number 1
scoring player in fantasy last year. The devaluing of the RB in play calling is
not exaggerated as the rules have been blended, watered down or skewed to fit
the aerial ball, the thing the pundits think sell tickets and cheers.
Personally, if I want a lot of passing and no balance I’ll watch college
football but that’s a whole other article. As long as Rodgers stays healthy,
he’s the best QB in the game and the only one worth an early second round look.
If you need numbers to convince you then you’re not a football fan.
14. DaltonHasNoSoul-Demaryius
Thomas, WR, Broncos
With a possible RB1 now it’s time to go out
and get sure fire WR1. I’ve been seeing Gronk before Thomas in some drafts and
I don’t really get the reasoning. Manning is still a very good QB and the
Broncos are not going to pay Thomas like they just did and not use him to his
full potential. He gained the second
most yards behind Brown and also had the most targets out of anyone in the
league. Last year I had Thomas and I will always remember the first three games
where he averaged 47 yards a game and only got one TD but I will also be
reminded of the week four 226 yards and 2 TD game and the great string of 100
yard receiving games from week five to ten. A great defense can stop most
receivers and it’s the nature of position to have off weeks but if you’re
sitting here and Thomas falls, you should be licking your chops.
15. GronksFollies
–Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers
Now, if we’re just going by name the pick
is obvious here and if I’m following other mock drafts I follow suit and insert
Gronk. As with anything, I have my reasons. Gronk was hurt and getting back
into his groove early last year and I’m not going to hold those numbers against
him but I can’t ignore the injury history. It might be hard to believe right
now but there are actually 6 WRs available who got more points than Gronk last
year: Jordy, Odell, Randall Cobb, Emmanuel Sanders, Julio Jones and Jeremy
Maclin. You can throw out Maclin cause a Cheifs wideout shouldn’t be considered
a number 1 and I think it will tough for Sanders to duplicate last years
unexpected success. But, there are still four viable options who you know are
going to get a healthy dose of targets. Surprisingly even with Cobb in the same
offense, Nelson had the fourth most targets last season and was tied with
Demaryius Thomas for second most fantasy points among WRs. Even with an injured
Rodgers in 2013 for four games, Nelson was still the 11th best
scoring wideout. At this point, you’re looking for a WR1 and Nelson is the
clear favorite with the best QB in the league.
16. ItWasABrees –Julio Jones, WR, Falcons
Drafts often take on a live of their own
that doesn’t correspond to any projections or prior thoughts. If anyone senses
that they’re going to miss out on something good, in this case a WR1, they’ll
jump on the opportunity as soon as they can. ItWasABrees had to settle for a
lower tier RB1 but on the turnaround they get a quality WR1 and will be in
position to still end up as a Drew Brees namesake. They could even wait a
longer time and get Matt Ryan. No QB had a quieter top 10 overall fantasy
season than Matty Ice. The defense isn’t much improved so you know the Falcons
are going to be slinging it regularly. If Jones stays healthy, you can write
him in for plus 1200 yards and around 6 or 7 TDs and that’s the bare minimum.
He was third in yards last year and third in targets so you know Matty Ice is
looking his way. With Roddy White starting to slow down, look for Julio to
challenge for the number one WR spot in fantasy.
17. BadBrady-Rob Gronkowski, TE Patriots
Last year he had one more TD than Thomas
and went for 1,124 yards, making him the top TE by 30 points on NFL.com. If you’re comparing his past season
production with WR’s than he was better than Mike Evans and worse than Jeremy
Maclin, right at the number 10 top wideout. With Juilo gone, this is where it
starts to make sense to take a guy like Gronk. I would still go for Odell
Beckham and maybe Calvin Johnson before Gronk but this pick is more based off
where I think he is going to go. He might go higher if you have a Patroits fan
in the bunch but the second TE will not shortly follow him unless you have a
big Seahawks fan.
18. TheManizelGuild-
Odell Beckham Jr, WR, New York Giants
Beckham tore the league up last year,
leading the finest pack of rookie wide receivers in recent memory. The very
appealing part about Beckham and one that might get him picked before a Julio
or a Gronk, is that he put up 1305 yards with 12 TDs in only 12 games. The
caution is that he only has one year under his belt. More cautious players
might want to go with consistency and pick a guy like Calvin Johnson or Randall
Cobb but I think the ceiling is too high to pass up on this guy at this point
in the second round. Eli should grasp the offense a little better and now that
he has options in Cruz and Beckham, he might not feel as if he has to force so
many balls. The questions will be if the Giants will be able to balance the
pass with the run and confuse opposing defenses more. The Giants get the NFC South this year as
well, which will go a long ways in helping Beckham tear it up again.
19. SippinFortes- Andrew Luck, QB, Colts
By taking Brown in the first round this
makes this a tough spot to draft because anything besides a wideout will be a
reach. But, you already have the best wideout on your team so it makes not
reaching difficult. You could go with another wideout and plan on being heavy
there but you stand the chance of missing out on a top flight QB by the time
you pick again. I think the best bet is to make sure you’re starters are good
at each position as opposed to having a great position of players. Sure, you
might get stuck with a subpar RB but the two player combo of Luck and Brown
will make up for the points you won’t get with an Ingram or an Ellington.
Rodgers only beat Luck at as the top fantasy scorer by 2.4 points and he gets
an added weapon in Andre Johnson to help in the red zone. You know he’s going
to get the attempts as no other offense relies upon their QB more than the
Colts and there is the rushing affect that so many people forget (273 yards, 3
TDs). He has more early third round value but with how SippinFortes picked in
the first round, this is the best option.
20. HouseManning- AJ Green, WR, Cincinnati
Bengals
A healthy AJ Green averages 1278 yards and
roughly 8 TDs a season. He was a top five fantasy WR in 2012 and 2013 and still
put up a respectable 1,041 yards and 6 TDs last year. Green is a nice pick here
because of the chemistry with Andy Dalton. This is a make or break year for
Dalton as he needs to rise to the occasion and lead the team to a playoff win.
That means plenty of looks for Mr. Green. Sure, he was hurt three games last
year but everyone comes with an injury risk. You have to like him because of
his past production and because the supposed AFC North bruising, non-offense
style of play has gone the way of the Dodo bird.
21. 1.21JJWatts-Calvin
Johnson, WR, Lions
If we’re going off past performance, Calvin
would probably be the first WR taken off the board. Last season, where Johnson
was not even the Lions leading WR (Golden Tate), has started whispers and
conversations that the man has begun to fall off. Granted he’s entering his ninth season and
ever since his record breaking 1964 yard receiving year his per game average
has gone from 122.8 down to 82.8 but....we’re
still talking about Calvin Freaking Johnson! Optimus Prime, man, the guy who
put up 1331 yards and 12 TDs for an 0-16 team! One year does not make a man but
it can allow for a diamond to fall right into your lap. The Lions are a potent
offense with a piece in Tate that now takes the pressure away from Johnson. I see
him thriving this year and showing everyone that he’s still the best wideout in
the game.
22. 12thDouchers-
Alshon Jeffery, WR, Chicago Bears
The next slew of wide outs are all very
close which makes this draft position tough.
It’s not out of the question to maybe start thinking of reaching a
little for Russel Wilson if you really like him but I would advise against it.
Since it’s going to be a few until the draft snakes back around, you can still count
on getting a serviceable low end QB-1 but not necessarily a good WR. If you’re a Packer fan maybe you take Cobb
but the thing to like about Jeffery is he’s the number 1 guy in Chicago which
you can’t say about Cobb. He upped his
TD total to 10 last year and was close to 1200 receiving yards. There is uncertainty
with Cutler but that’s more expected than anything and Jeffery has shown he can
still thrive with that inconsistency as he finished just outside the top 10
wide receivers in scoring. It will be an
added bonus if Kevin White develops quickly and is able to take some of the
pressure off of Jeffery.
23. CauseIWasBlount-
Randall Cobb, WR, Green Bay Packers
Even though you could say he was a second
target on his team, Cobb still produced a top 10 WR finish last year with 1,287
yards and 12 TDs. The TDs are the real nice thing about Cobb and his ability to
get yards after the catch can turn standard plays into home runs. Last year was his first full healthy year and
he turned his yardage, catch average and TD totals into career highs. With a
nice new contract and the league’s best QB I would expect nothing less than a
top 10 finish as long as he stays healthy. At this point in the draft you can’t
pass up a consistent number 1 receiver.
24. The
Gronkiees- T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts
Finally, the Gronkiees get another pick.
With back to back they can go with any two player combination they see fit. If
they feel like putting the eggs into one particular offense Russel Wilson would
be an interesting pick at the beginning of the third round. For the lack of passing
he does, he makes up for it in the rushing. That added facet of his game
elevates him above a Peyton Manning or a Drew Brees in my opinion because you
don’t just have a one trick pony. I could also see a want to bolster the RB
spot and get a Mark Ingram or an Alfred Morris. Most teams won’t be able to
have two quality starting RBs and this is a tempting position to be in.
Regardless, a number one wideout is a must. Mike Evans could be an opition here
but I don’t like counting on rookie QBs with my number one wideout which is why
T.Y. Hilton makes sense. The diminutive wideout has surprised everyone by going
over 1000 yards in two straight seasons and getting 5 and 7 TDs respectively.
There is concern that Andre Johnson will steal some targets, especially in the
red zone, but Hilton will make up for it in his ability for the big play (16.4
yards per reception, sixth best in the league last year). As him and Luck
continue to develop into one of the best tandems in the league, look for Hilton
to show everyone why he is needed in Indy.
That’s the whole first two rounds somewhat
dissected and planned out. That’s the easy part about mock drafts, though, is
that the writer can always follow a plan. The bad thing about regular drafts is
it’s not up to you. The available players are dictated by the unknown,
quizzical faces staring at a different computer monitor than you are or the
wing stuffed month who just wants to know if Michael Vick got picked up by
anyone. It’s a crab shoot at the end of the day but it’s good to have a
strategy, to think about the draft as a whole 12 rounds and what not, instead
of a spur of the moment thing. Think about that pick two rounds from now, think
about what you want your team to look like if you’re picking at the top or the bottom.
Sure, some choices aren’t going to be popular but it just matters if you like
what you see at the end. Good luck and remember, you’re team will all go to
shit at the first bye week anyway.
