Is Big Better? (Strategy of the NBA Draft Part 2)

2010 NBA Draft

Player: Derrick Favors, 10.9 PTS, 7.2 BOARDS, 23.7 WS, 3^rd Pick to Toronto 

We’re quick to forget about a lot of people. If you would have asked me if Derrick Favors was still playing in the league before this article I would have had to really think about it. I guess if he’s playing in Utah it is kind of like not playing in the NBA but that’s a whole other story. Just ask Enes Kanter. Favors has quietly carved out a nice little stat line with the Jazz the past few years. He’s close to a double, double and him and John Wall have close to the same number of win shares (25.9 as compared to 23.7). He needs to get closer to being a close range 50% shooter and try to get some semblance of a mid range game (22% last year) but, there’s only so much you can ask. For the big men of today and what they’re being asked to do, his numbers are right there. He was lucky to have come out in 2010, as a guy like him doesn’t get taken third in drafts now-a-days.

Player: DeMarcus Cousins, 18.9 PTS, 10.6 BOARDS, 23.6 WS, 5^TH Pick Sacramento Kings

A polarizing figure due to his personality but no one can argue that he is an All-Star quality player year in and year out. No one can argue his skill set and I think the attitude gets a bit overblown. I would probably act like Cousins if I had to survive in an organization as dysfunctional as the Sacramento Kings. Any team that could potentially chose to have three different head coaches in less than a year should be taken over by the NBA for gross incompetence. Some might say he wouldn’t put up these numbers if he wasn’t on the Kings but I see skills that would translate anywhere. It’s not his fault he is the vocal point of a team and can’t find anyone else who can make a shot. If the basketball Gods are good, the Lakers will find a way to land him.

Player: Greg Monroe, 14.3 PTS, 9.2 BOARDS, 7^th Pick Detroit Pistons

Another guy who I would have loved to see on the Lakers and who would be best served parting ways with his current organization (the Bucks though? Really??? Just kinding. I’d pick them over the Lakers too). They tried and I think, with Stan the Man at the helm, Detroit will eventually turn it around but if you don’t want to start a guy like Greg Monroe, than there’s no point in keeping him. Monroe has the numbers to make him an attractive commodity and fits the mold of what big men are being asked to do now-a-days. His game doesn’t venture to far from the basket and you’d like for him to be more of a presence on the offensive boards but he will be a good complimentary piece in Milwaukee.  Sadly he won’t provide seventh pick value for the original team but I could see him as the player that gets the Bucks to the second round of the playoffs and maybe to contenders in three years.

2011 NBA Draft

Player: Enes Kanter, 10.4 PTS, 8.4 BOARDS, 12.7 WS, 3^rd Pick Utah Jazz

The guy doesn’t like venturing three feet or more from the basket and he’s not a big fan of Utah as previously mentioned and...I think guys like this, like Jahill Okafor or a Joel Embid, will continue to slip little by little as more and more drafts unfold. The big man is becoming more versatile and teams want him to be more of a Swiss Army Knife than a one trick, back to the basket pony. Kanter is close to a double double and does fit into a needed role but it is a role that will be featured less and less as the game gets faster and spreads out more. But as long as he can board, he’ll still get a paycheck.

Player: Tristan Thompson, 10.1 PTS, 8.4 BOARDS, 18.9 WS, 4^th Pick Cleveland Cavaliers

Five years, 80 million. That’s what a year in the playoffs averaging 10.8 boards and 9.6 pts will get you. Good for Thompson to take advantage of a Kevin Love injury and show his defensive prowess. That’s about the only thing he has on Love. He saw his point’s average dip this year but that’s bound to happen with Love and Lebron coming on and he might just play better without having to be relied upon as a scoring threat. It helps too that he’ll have a healthy Irving and James to set him up. It will be interesting to see how he and Love coexist on a Cavs team that needs to stay healthy to contend with the West.

Player: Jonas Valanciunas, 10.9 PTS, 8.7 Boards, 5^th Pick to the Toronto Raptors

Everyone needs to start taking notice for the basketball team forming north of the boarder. DeRozen, Lowry and this sneaky good Valanciunas are forming a core that will be right there with the Bulls for second best in the East and may be able to catch the Cavs if Lebron ever starts showing his minutes and age. If you want to win a few bucks, bet your buddies that he was a top five pick and I’m sure one of them will say no. His point totals have risen along with his FG percentage the past three years and his total boards have increased as well. Now, should Kawhi Leonard, picked at 15, have been a top 10 pick? It depends on how you value these guys. I’m thinking there’s less of these big men who are capable of giving you a double-double a night so you might have to reach to get one. This guy, though, has grown to into one of the top five players from this draft.

2012 NBA Draft

Player: Anthony Davis, 19.7 PTS, 9.5 BOARDS, 30.5 WS, 1^st Pick to the then New Orleans Hornets

For a number one pick, Davis has exceeded expectations. No one could have predicted the meteoric rise of the once lengthy, skinny kid from Chicago. His point totals have jumped from 13.5 his first season to 24.4 this past year and he’s averaging nearly three blocks a game. As the focal point for the Pelicans, he has taken them from the lottery to 8^th Place in the West and doesn’t look to be slowing down. He’s the type of player that needs one more superstar to make the team a legit contender and I’m sure it won’t be tough to convince someone to come play with him (KD?? RW??).  Davis has everything you want out of a superstar big man, 75 % when close to the basket and a developing mid range that is close to 50%. People wouldn’t mind drafting big men if they knew they were getting the next Davis. The scary thing is, he’s only 22. 

Player: Andre Drummond, 12.1 PTS, 11.8 BOARDS, 22 WS, 9^TH Pick to the Detroit Pistons

You have to remind yourself that Drummond is only 21. It seems like he’s been around for so long or maybe it’s just the years in Detroit wearing on him. He’s a classic post player but can carve out a nice spot in this league with rebounding, stout defense, and a few buckets a game. Him and Monroe have been sheltered in the losing cocoon of Detroit and are both due to get a big payday because of their numbers. Monroe won’t be staying in Motown but maybe Stan Van Gundy can work his magic and convince Drummond that he can be a part of something special and a main centerpiece. He’s not a bad building block to have.

2013 NBA Draft

Player: Nerlens Noel, 9.9 PTS, 8.1 BOARDS, 6^TH Pick New Orleans Hornets

Any draft is basically a crapshoot and no other draft epitomized that more than the 2013 NBA Draft.  The rookie of the year was the 11^th pick and the best guy from the draft might end up being the 6^th pick and the man who didn’t even play the 2013-2014 season. Noel was the second of four Kentucky big men to go in the top ten within the best four drafts and it seems like that school is finding a way to develop long, athletic defensive big man (if you can all one year in school developing). They might not all develop the same offensive prowess as an Anthony Davis but they all fall into the rim protector that more teams want their bigs to be. Teams are finding a way to get the scoring from somewhere else. Whatever the Sixers are doing, they need to make it a point to hold on to Noel. He was long touted as the number 1 prospect in this draft and if not for injury probably would have gone there. It’s too early to call but it seems that people might look back on this draft and wonder how Noel slipped to being picked after the likes of Cody Zeller, Otto Potter and Alex Len.

2014 NBA Draft

It’s all too early to tell. This draft has two potential guys who could start filling up the state sheet in Jabari Parker and Julius Randle but we’ll have to see how they recover from injury. They aren’t the classic big men as well as they’re a little smaller and more in the power forward mold but they could still develop into solid players. Parker especially has the offensive skill set to do something special in Milwaukee and no one can forget the tenacity Randle showed during the 2014 NCAA Tournament. 

                                                                                                                                                                                             

The names have changed, from Bynum to Oden to Davis back to Griffin and even Jahill Okafor but at the end of the day the largest change has been in the expectations surrounding the leagues big men. Teams used to want that special breed that could average 20 and 10 and it took them a while to realize how rare and special a Duncan or an O’Neal was. A big man now-a-days will only be asked to do this in special cases but it still does not make a low double double (10 PTS and 10 BOARDS) less valuable.  The world’s full of sharpshooters or someone who can give you 18 points a night but there’s less and less players coming through that will throw elbows to keep the play alive. I’d say their more valuable than someone who’s just going to hang out in the corner but as with any NBA Draft, it’s all up in the air.

Is Big Better? (Strategy of the NBA Draft Part 1)

“Because I’m not 7-foot. That’s about it.”-D’Angelo Russell

In the ever involving landscape of professional basketball where a team won a championship with the center averaging 2 PTS and 5.7 boards in the championship series, there might not be a better quote that sums up the mindset of the lucky GMs who get to pick at the top of drafts.  From 2004 until now six out of the twelve number 1 overall selections have been big men. Ah...that nebulous term. What is a big man? Is it Yao Ming, Dwight Howard, Magic Johnson (who played center as a rookie) or even Draymond Green, one of the between 6-7 and 6-9 hybrid athletes that seem to be taking the league by storm. It’s an evolving question that, depending on the team you follow or the style you like, has many different definitions. The big men we’re going to see here have these defining traits:

·         6’9 or higher in height

·         Has primarily a low post to mid range jumper type of game (Sorry but Dirk is in a whole other category by himself)

·         Over their career they have averaged between 7 and 15 total boards a game (If you’re not throwing elbows down low you can’t be a big man)

·         Top 10 NBA Draft Pick within the past 11 years (because if anyone expected anything out of Pavel Podkolzin, then top 10 picks wouldn’t matter)

In a few years we’ll be able to talk about Jahill Okafor and Karl Anthony Towns but, for now, we’ll just have to judge them on their draft night suits. The number one pick in my book is Rondae Hollis-Jefferson.

Now, does a team need a “big man” to find success? Does it make sense in an era where three point shot attempts are raising as fast Chris Pratt’s sex appeal that a team can win anymore by throwing it down low and letting their big man do the work? I don’t know and that’s why I had to use the great Basketball Reference to find out.

2004 NBA Draft

Player: Dwight Howard, 1^st Pick Orlando Magic, 18.1 PTS, 12.7 RBS, WS (estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player) 106.7 (inserted for all you analytics out there)

The last high school player to go number 1, Howard has lived up to the expectations. Say what you want about the fiasco in L.A. or the current injury issues (the guys 6-11), if you’re able to go out and average a double-double in this league you’re doing something right.  People forget (and I forgot) that Howard won three straight Defensive Player of the Year Awards from 2008 to 2011 and led the league in total rebounding from 2005 to 2010.  He even somehow managed to lead a team that included Rafer Alston, Tony Battle and Mickael Pietrus to the 2009 NBA Finals (beating LBJ in the Eastern Conference Finals none the less)!  The rest of the top 10 includes recent champs Shaun Livingston and Andre Iguodala as well as a solid and underappreciated Luol Deng but it speaks volumes when he was able to get the Magic to a title five years after being drafted. His value is shown even more by how much the Magic have struggled since he left. They are still recovering, rolling around in a constant ping pong cage of rebuilding years.

Player:  Emeka Okafor, 2^nd Pick Charlotte Bobcats, 12.3 PTS, 9.9 RBS, WS 44.3

He’s in possession of one of the cooler sounding names in the NBA and is a remnant of a great UCONN championship team that included Ben Gordon but there’s not much else going on here. For one, he got stuck on a Bobcats team that didn’t win more than 35 games until he was five seasons in and he was given the distinction of being compared to Howard throughout his career.  Any other big man would have been fine with a double-double his first five years in the league but it doesn’t matter if you’re losing constantly. The Bobcats management were not too inclined to surround Okafor with anyone else to make life easier but luckily the 2004 draft class is built on a heaping offering of quality bench players and not superstars.  In that regard, Okafor did well for himself and you can’t hold a player accountable for his team’s organizational problems. He didn’t choose to be drafted by the 21^st Century version of the Clippers.

2005 NBA Draft

Player: Andrew Bogut, 1^st Pick Milwaukee Bucks, PTS 10.9. 9.2 RBS, WS 43.8

This is where it gets interesting. The aforementioned Aussie was the consensus top overall pick that year. He had the size and defensive skills that General Managers salivate over. His points per game rose from 9.4 to 14.3 his first three years and his rebounding was close to 10 by that time. If he had been in the any other draft, Bogurt would have been considered a success but when the best point guard in the league (back then, today and for another three years) was taken by the Hornets at number 4 everyone is going to say the Bucks blew this one.  Bogut has developed into a great role player who can start or come off the bench to offer a big body to get 7 or so boards a game and dish out a nice looking assist or two but....he isn’t a Chris Paul.

Player: Andrew Bynum, 10^th Pick Los Angeles Lakers, PTS 11.5, 7.7 RBS, WS 37.4

In what will become a common theme for some big men we have to beg the question, what if? The Lakers have a royal lineage of big men that goes from Wilt to Karem to Shaq and to Pau.  For a fleeting two year period from 2010 to 2012, where Bynum went from 11.3 points a game to 18.7 and upped his total rebounds to 11.8 (even making an All-Star game in 2012), I was among the hoard of loyal Laker fans who could see Kobe Bryant passing the great MJ with seven titles on the coattails of the next dominant center, Andrew Bynum. Ah, but alas, the best laid plans always have a way of never working out. After a knee injury and a trade to a Sixers team that he would never play a single game for, Bynum faded into the bellows of bad NBA afores and whatever the hell this is. The mere mention of his name will forever haunt me as I muse over the legacy of Kobe Bryant.  But, the 2005 Draft did give the Lakers Ronny Turiaf and that has to count for something (insert sarcasm).

2006 NBA Draft

This draft is almost as notable for its top 10 letdowns as it is for the one big man who meets our traits. Andrea Bargnani was selected number one at 7 feet tall and struggled to pull down 5 boards a game. The Raptors were trying to find the next Dirk and instead got stuck with someone who averages about as many boards as Rondo (4.7).  If you want to win some money, because I don’t think anyone would believe you, bet your buddy that Shelden Williams was a top five pick.  I didn’t know and the Hawks definitely want to forget they selected Candance Parkers husband at number 5 that year. Who knows, maybe one day he will redeem himself by producing a basketball protégé because we all know Parker’s got game.

Other Forgettable Picks: Patrick O’Bryant 9^th Pick to Golden State (no luck of the Irish),Mouhamend Sene 10^th pick to Seattle Supersonics

Player: LaMarcus Aldridge, 2^nd Pick Chicago Bulls, 19.4 PTS, 8.4 Boards, WS 69.4

I am reminded of the possibility that maybe, just maybe, we could have had a Jokiam Noah, Derrick Rose and Aldridge line-up in Chicago (this is all without taking into account the space time continuum and the butterfly effect). If Aldridge stays in Chicago, they probably don’t even get that number one pick that turns into Rose. Regardless of these back-to future senseless “what-if” ramblings that NFL.com gets by filling their off season articles with (2010, 2011, 2012 Draft Redo REALLY???)  Aldridge would end up contributing the most to his team out of the stinky top 10 he was involved in (cue Adam Morrison Mustache ). Brandon Roy was something and is one of those players you feel bad for, like one of our later big men Mr. Greg Oden. Aldridge has been an All-Star the past four years and is looking as of this morning will be taking his talents to the evil empire Spurs. Whether he can keep up his 20 or higher PTS a game with 8 or more boards to go with it remains to be seen. He might realize life is easier with a young, dominant point guard like Damian Lillard instead of an aging Tony Parker.

2007 NBA Draft

Player: Greg Oden, 1^st Pick Portland Trail Blazers, 8 PTS, 6.2 BOARDS, WS 7.3

Now we get to the big man who reminded us of Sam Bowie over Jordan and the biggest concern whenever you’re talking about freaks of nature (really, I don’t humans are meant to be that tall or that big): health. He doesn’t have the boards to make this list but it Is because of Greg Oden that the question of big man vs everything else was again brought to the forefront of the discussion on NBA draft methodology. You could say that before Oden, being freakish tall brought you a lot more than it does now. Before Oden, there isn’t even any discussion about Okafor not going number 1.

I’m a softie at heart so whenever I think of Greg Oden I get as solemn and down trodden as his mugshot. The guy got a raw deal and two knees that weren’t built for his body. For Shaq they worked and for Yao Ming they worked (the foot did him in). For Bowie and Oden, it just wasn’t in the cards. Like Bowie, Oden also has to live under the unfortunate circumstances of being the guy who was picked ahead of Kevin Durant, Al Horford, Mike Conley, and Joakim Noah. One is a budding superstar (if the foot doesn’t derail him) and the others are all in for long, fruitful NBA careers. Hindsight is 20/20 and after all this the Blazers wished they had a crystal ball.

Player:  Al Horford, 3^rd Pick Atlanta Hawks, 14.2 PTS, 9.2 BOARDS, WS 54.7

It took a while for it to come but Horford, with the recent Hawk success, is starting to get the praise he deserves. Now of course this depends on what you think the value of a 3^rd Pick is and what it should do for you (which is a whole other discussion) but by my estimation, Horford has lived up to the pick. Early on, he was a double-double machine and, as his scoring increased and the midrange came into his game more, the point totals jumped and the boards only sagged a little (last season 8.4). He doesn’t say much and not much was said of him until the Hawks surprised anyone and took the East number 1 seed into the playoffs. It will probably continue this way and, a few years down the road, we’ll look back and wonder how we never noticed him.

Player: Joakim Noah, 9^th Pick Chicago Bulls, 9.6 PTS, 9.5 BOARDS, WS 56.8

Noah has mentioned to stay squarely in the spotlight since he emerged on the scene as a rangy force on the Florida Gator team that won back to back championships. Ever since he decided to stay in school with his follow Gators and go for the at second ring (sure, the co-eds had nothing to do with that) he has held a special place in my heart.  He’s always one to talk trash and say the things about Cleveland that no one else wants to say, which has elevated him to an almost poor man’s Dennis Rodman (because no one will a Dennis Rodman). He’s got one Defensive Player of the Year Award and will probably get a few more before it’s all said and done. Sure, maybe you want some more offense or less (depending on how he’s shooting) but he’s instant energy and there’s no one that leaves it out on the floor like Noah.  He was already a legend on draft night as he offered us the physical, tangible version of Sideshow Bob in a suit.

Where have you gone Spencer Hawes?

A nation yearns to turn their eyes toward you

2008 NBA Draft

Player: Kevin Love, 5^th Pick to the Timberwolves, 18.7 PTS, 11.8 BOARDS, 55.7 WS

All I remember about Kevin Love from college was the oultet pass talk, as if that were something kids growing up would remember about a player. Some people thought he was undersized and figured there was no way he would pull down the boards in college but, as any rec league bball coach would tell you, Just box out and you have a shot! He racked up the stats and, if he hadn’t been on a floundering team stuck in the tough Western Conference, he might have even garnered serious MVP consideration. It’s tough to say he was a success for the T-Wolves but I’m also not going to blame him for being stuck in a bad situation and getting out. (déjà vu Kevin Garnett) After this past year in Cleveland I’m unsure if he can fit with another superstar and put up the numbers that he did. The jury is still out on that experiment and Love might find himself in that awkward position of being spread out to shot on the edge because he’s playing with more ball dominant guards a la Chris Bosh. It takes a while for a team to gel and I think if Love and James can build trust, LBJ will set him up for a long time.

A reminder for Knicks fans that Gallinari 2 and 4.9 boards his first two seasons in NYC. He upped his point total to a respectable 15.1 a game but if you want to be the next Dirk and make up for the lack of board numbers, you have to at least put up 20.

Player: Brook Lopez, 10^th Pick to the New Jersey Nets, 17.9 PTS, 7.3 BOARDS, 38.6 WS

His brother is more recognizable but Brook is the more complete player. He’s had two seasons where he’s averaged 20 points a game and has an average field goal percentage of .511.  Two of his seven seasons have been cut drastically short by injuries and you can’t count on him to evaluate a team to a contender even in the weak Eastern conference.  Lopez is a solid player but this draft had too much big man value late on to say that he was worth the 10^th overall pick. Now, in a draft class with Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook it’s going to be tough for the big men to take center stage but it should be noted that big men later on in the draft are in a better spot than Lopez. Serge Ibaka has developed into a key defensive hog for the Thunder and has numbers that rival Al Horfords and gives you 3.3 blocks per game on top of that.  DeAndre Jordan looks like a steal in the second round and with the Clippers getting better and better is due to continue increasing his point average and remain amazing on the boards (13.6 and 15 BOARDS per game the past two years). This is the first draft that showed quality big men could be had in the second round but, Lopez and Love still were good bets as only two players, Rose and Westbrook, can be considered great players from the top 10.

2009 NBA Draft

Player: Blake Griffin, 21.5 PTS, 9.7 BOARDS, 50.9 WS, 1^st Pick to Los Angeles Clippers

Griffin stood out as an athletic freak in college and has offered plenty of highlights to support that claim. The number one touting was more based off that than any sort of developed post-game or typical big man qualities. Griffin was drafted because of what he could possibly develop into which was a hybrid, athletic big man who could shoot a high percentage from the rim and midrange and....facilitate. Most really good big men separate themselves by being great passers and Griffin just averaged 5.3 assists per game for the 2014-2015 season. On two point field goals total he shoots close to fifty percent every year and around 75% when he’s less than 3 feet in. He has been one of the major reasons the Clippers are no the hottest team in LA and a regular contender. As he continues to hone his game, I see him developing into a regular MVP candidate as the years go on. It’s tough to say the Clippers went wrong with this one (which isn’t what you can say for a lot of Clipper number one picks).

Player: Hasheem Thabeet, 2.2 PTS, 2.7 BOARDS, 2^nd Pick to Memphis Grizzles

For a guy who averaged 10.3 PTS and 8.5 Boards a game in college, I think the expectations did not match what realistically Thabeet could come in and do. But...hindsight is always 20/20.  The Grizzles brought him in expecting a great defensive and rebounding presence and weren’t able to coax any of those things out of him.  If you get sent down to the D-League after getting picked number 2, clearly there’s more going on with you than was anticipated. When you see James Harden, Stephen Curry and DeMar Rozan were taken after this guy you wonder what Memphis was thinking. It seems ludicrous now to value a seventh footer as a defensive specialist over a pure scorer or jump shooting specialist. But, to soften the blow, I think it is the rare case where three guys from the top 10 exceeded expectations. No one thought that the two MVP candidates out of this top 10 would end up being Curry and Harden. As with Greg Oden and Sam Bowie, it sucks for Thabeet that a team took a chance on him before these two All Stars.