“Because I’m not
7-foot. That’s about it.”-D’Angelo Russell
In the ever involving landscape of professional basketball
where a team won a championship with the center averaging 2 PTS and 5.7 boards
in the championship series, there might not be a better quote that sums up the
mindset of the lucky GMs who get to pick at the top of drafts. From 2004 until now six out of the twelve
number 1 overall selections have been big men. Ah...that nebulous term. What is
a big man? Is it Yao Ming, Dwight Howard, Magic Johnson (who played center as a
rookie) or even Draymond Green, one of the between 6-7 and 6-9 hybrid athletes
that seem to be taking the league by storm. It’s an evolving question that,
depending on the team you follow or the style you like, has many different
definitions. The big men we’re going to see here have these defining traits:
·
6’9 or higher in height
·
Has primarily a low post to mid range jumper
type of game (Sorry but Dirk is in a whole other category by himself)
·
Over their career they have averaged between 7
and 15 total boards a game (If you’re not throwing elbows down low you can’t be
a big man)
·
Top 10 NBA Draft Pick within the past 11 years
(because if anyone expected anything out of Pavel
Podkolzin, then top 10 picks wouldn’t matter)
In a few years we’ll be able to talk about Jahill Okafor and
Karl Anthony Towns but, for now, we’ll just have to judge them on their draft
night suits. The number one pick in my book is Rondae
Hollis-Jefferson.
Now, does a team need a “big man” to find success? Does it
make sense in an era where three point shot attempts are raising as fast Chris
Pratt’s sex appeal that a team can win anymore by throwing it down low and
letting their big man do the work? I don’t know and that’s why I had to use the
great Basketball Reference
to find out.
2004 NBA Draft
Player: Dwight Howard, 1st Pick Orlando Magic,
18.1 PTS, 12.7 RBS, WS (estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player)
106.7 (inserted for all you analytics out there)
The last high school player to go number 1, Howard has lived
up to the expectations. Say what you want about the fiasco in L.A. or the
current injury issues (the guys 6-11), if you’re able to go out and average a
double-double in this league you’re doing something right. People forget (and I forgot) that Howard won
three straight Defensive Player of the Year Awards from 2008 to 2011 and led
the league in total rebounding from 2005 to 2010. He even somehow managed to lead a team that
included Rafer Alston, Tony Battle and Mickael Pietrus to the 2009 NBA Finals
(beating LBJ in the Eastern Conference Finals none the less)! The rest of the top 10 includes recent champs
Shaun Livingston and Andre Iguodala as well as a solid and underappreciated
Luol Deng but it speaks volumes when he was able to get the Magic to a title
five years after being drafted. His value is shown even more by how much the
Magic have struggled since he left. They are still recovering, rolling around
in a constant ping pong cage of rebuilding years.
Player: Emeka Okafor,
2nd Pick Charlotte Bobcats, 12.3 PTS, 9.9 RBS, WS 44.3
He’s in possession of one of the cooler sounding names in
the NBA and is a remnant of a great UCONN championship team that included Ben
Gordon but there’s not much else going on here. For one, he got stuck on a
Bobcats team that didn’t win more than 35 games until he was five seasons in
and he was given the distinction of being compared to Howard throughout his
career. Any other big man would have
been fine with a double-double his first five years in the league but it
doesn’t matter if you’re losing constantly. The Bobcats management were not too
inclined to surround Okafor with anyone else to make life easier but luckily
the 2004 draft class is built on a heaping offering of quality bench players
and not superstars. In that regard,
Okafor did well for himself and you can’t hold a player accountable for his
team’s organizational problems. He didn’t choose to be drafted by the 21st
Century version of the Clippers.
2005 NBA Draft
Player: Andrew Bogut, 1st Pick Milwaukee Bucks,
PTS 10.9. 9.2 RBS, WS 43.8
This is where it gets interesting. The aforementioned Aussie
was the consensus top overall pick that year. He had the size and defensive
skills that General Managers salivate over. His points per game rose from 9.4
to 14.3 his first three years and his rebounding was close to 10 by that time.
If he had been in the any other draft, Bogurt would have been considered a
success but when the best point guard in the league (back then, today and for
another three years) was taken by the Hornets at number 4 everyone is going to
say the Bucks blew this one. Bogut has developed
into a great role player who can start or come off the bench to offer a big
body to get 7 or so boards a game and dish out a nice looking assist or two
but....he isn’t a Chris Paul.
Player: Andrew Bynum, 10th Pick Los Angeles
Lakers, PTS 11.5, 7.7 RBS, WS 37.4
In what will become a common theme for some big men we have
to beg the question, what if? The
Lakers have a royal lineage of big men that goes from Wilt to Karem to Shaq and
to Pau. For a fleeting two year period
from 2010 to 2012, where Bynum went from 11.3 points a game to 18.7 and upped
his total rebounds to 11.8 (even making an All-Star game in 2012), I was among
the hoard of loyal Laker fans who could see Kobe Bryant passing the great MJ
with seven titles on the coattails of the next dominant center, Andrew Bynum.
Ah, but alas, the best laid plans always have a way of never working out. After
a knee injury and a trade to a Sixers team that he would never play a single
game for, Bynum faded into the bellows of bad NBA afores and whatever
the hell this is. The mere mention of his name will forever haunt me as I
muse over the legacy of Kobe Bryant.
But, the 2005 Draft did give the Lakers Ronny Turiaf and that has to
count for something (insert sarcasm).
2006 NBA Draft
This draft is almost as notable for its top 10 letdowns as
it is for the one big man who meets our traits. Andrea Bargnani was selected
number one at 7 feet tall and struggled to pull down 5 boards a game. The Raptors
were trying to find the next Dirk and instead got stuck with someone who
averages about as many boards as Rondo (4.7).
If you want to win some money, because I don’t think anyone would
believe you, bet your buddy that Shelden Williams was a top five pick. I didn’t know and the Hawks definitely want
to forget they selected Candance Parkers husband at number 5 that year. Who
knows, maybe one day he will redeem himself by producing a basketball protégé
because we all know Parker’s got game.
Other Forgettable Picks: Patrick O’Bryant 9th
Pick to Golden State (no luck of the Irish),Mouhamend Sene 10th
pick to Seattle Supersonics
Player: LaMarcus Aldridge, 2nd Pick Chicago
Bulls, 19.4 PTS, 8.4 Boards, WS 69.4
I am reminded of the possibility that maybe, just maybe, we
could have had a Jokiam Noah, Derrick Rose and Aldridge line-up in Chicago
(this is all without taking into account the space time continuum and the
butterfly effect). If Aldridge stays in Chicago, they probably don’t even get
that number one pick that turns into Rose. Regardless of these back-to future
senseless “what-if” ramblings that NFL.com gets by filling their off season
articles with (2010, 2011, 2012 Draft Redo REALLY???) Aldridge would end up contributing the most
to his team out of the stinky top 10 he was involved in (cue Adam
Morrison Mustache ). Brandon Roy was something and is one of those players
you feel bad for, like one of our later big men Mr. Greg Oden. Aldridge has
been an All-Star the past four years and is looking as of this morning will be
taking his talents to the evil empire Spurs. Whether he can keep up his 20 or
higher PTS a game with 8 or more boards to go with it remains to be seen. He
might realize life is easier with a young, dominant point guard like Damian
Lillard instead of an aging Tony Parker.
2007 NBA Draft
Player: Greg Oden, 1st Pick Portland Trail
Blazers, 8 PTS, 6.2 BOARDS, WS 7.3
Now we get to the big man who reminded us of Sam Bowie over
Jordan and the biggest concern whenever you’re talking about freaks of nature
(really, I don’t humans are meant to be that tall or that big): health. He
doesn’t have the boards to make this list but it Is because of Greg Oden that
the question of big man vs everything else was again brought to the forefront
of the discussion on NBA draft methodology. You could say that before Oden,
being freakish tall brought you a lot more than it does now. Before Oden, there
isn’t even any discussion about Okafor not going number 1.
I’m a softie at heart so whenever I think of Greg Oden I get
as solemn and down trodden as his mugshot.
The guy got a raw deal and two knees that weren’t built for his body. For Shaq
they worked and for Yao Ming they worked (the foot did him in). For Bowie and
Oden, it just wasn’t in the cards. Like Bowie, Oden also has to live under the
unfortunate circumstances of being the guy who was picked ahead of Kevin
Durant, Al Horford, Mike Conley, and Joakim Noah. One is a budding superstar
(if the foot doesn’t derail him) and the others are all in for long, fruitful
NBA careers. Hindsight is 20/20 and after all this the Blazers wished they had
a crystal ball.
Player: Al Horford, 3rd
Pick Atlanta Hawks, 14.2 PTS, 9.2 BOARDS, WS 54.7
It took a while for it to come but Horford, with the recent
Hawk success, is starting to get the praise he deserves. Now of course this
depends on what you think the value of a 3rd Pick is and what it
should do for you (which is a whole other discussion) but by my estimation,
Horford has lived up to the pick. Early on, he was a double-double machine and,
as his scoring increased and the midrange came into his game more, the point
totals jumped and the boards only sagged a little (last season 8.4). He doesn’t
say much and not much was said of him until the Hawks surprised anyone and took
the East number 1 seed into the playoffs. It will probably continue this way
and, a few years down the road, we’ll look back and wonder how we never noticed
him.
Player: Joakim Noah, 9th Pick Chicago Bulls, 9.6
PTS, 9.5 BOARDS, WS 56.8
Noah has mentioned to stay squarely in the spotlight since
he emerged on the scene as a rangy force on the Florida Gator team that won
back to back championships. Ever since he decided to stay in school with his
follow Gators and go for the at second ring (sure, the co-eds had nothing to do
with that) he has held a special place in my heart. He’s always one to talk trash and say the
things about Cleveland that no one else wants to say, which has elevated him to
an almost poor man’s Dennis Rodman (because no one will a Dennis Rodman). He’s got
one Defensive Player of the Year Award and will probably get a few more before
it’s all said and done. Sure, maybe you want some more offense or less
(depending on how he’s shooting) but he’s instant energy and there’s no one
that leaves it out on the floor like Noah.
He was already a legend on draft night as he offered us the physical,
tangible version of Sideshow
Bob in a suit.
Where have you gone
Spencer Hawes?
A nation yearns to
turn their eyes toward you
2008 NBA Draft
Player: Kevin Love, 5th Pick to the Timberwolves,
18.7 PTS, 11.8 BOARDS, 55.7 WS
All I remember about Kevin Love from college was the oultet pass talk, as if
that were something kids growing up would remember about a player. Some people
thought he was undersized and figured there was no way he would pull down the
boards in college but, as any rec league bball coach would tell you, Just box out and you have a shot! He
racked up the stats and, if he hadn’t been on a floundering team stuck in the
tough Western Conference, he might have even garnered serious MVP
consideration. It’s tough to say he was a success for the T-Wolves but I’m also
not going to blame him for being stuck in a bad situation and getting out.
(déjà vu Kevin Garnett) After this past year in Cleveland I’m unsure if he can
fit with another superstar and put up the numbers that he did. The jury is still
out on that experiment and Love might find himself in that awkward position of
being spread out to shot on the edge because he’s playing with more ball
dominant guards a la Chris Bosh. It takes a while for a team to gel and I think
if Love and James can build trust, LBJ will set him up for a long time.
A reminder for Knicks
fans that Gallinari 2 and 4.9 boards his first two seasons in NYC. He upped his
point total to a respectable 15.1 a game but if you want to be the next Dirk
and make up for the lack of board numbers, you have to at least put up 20.
Player: Brook Lopez, 10th Pick to the New Jersey
Nets, 17.9 PTS, 7.3 BOARDS, 38.6 WS
His brother is more recognizable but Brook is the more complete
player. He’s had two seasons where he’s averaged 20 points a game and has an
average field goal percentage of .511.
Two of his seven seasons have been cut drastically short by injuries and
you can’t count on him to evaluate a team to a contender even in the weak
Eastern conference. Lopez is a solid
player but this draft had too much big man value late on to say that he was
worth the 10th overall pick. Now, in a draft class with Derrick Rose and Russell
Westbrook it’s going to be tough for the big men to take center stage but it
should be noted that big men later on in the draft are in a better spot than
Lopez. Serge Ibaka has developed into a key defensive hog for the Thunder and
has numbers that rival Al Horfords and gives you 3.3 blocks per game on top of
that. DeAndre Jordan looks like a steal
in the second round and with the Clippers getting better and better is due to
continue increasing his point average and remain amazing on the boards (13.6
and 15 BOARDS per game the past two years). This is the first draft that showed
quality big men could be had in the second round but, Lopez and Love still were
good bets as only two players, Rose and Westbrook, can be considered great
players from the top 10.
2009 NBA Draft
Player: Blake Griffin, 21.5 PTS, 9.7 BOARDS, 50.9 WS, 1st
Pick to Los Angeles Clippers
Griffin stood out as an athletic freak in college and has
offered plenty of highlights
to support that claim. The number one touting was more based off that than any
sort of developed post-game or typical big man qualities. Griffin was drafted
because of what he could possibly develop into which was a hybrid, athletic big
man who could shoot a high percentage from the rim and midrange and....facilitate.
Most really good big men separate themselves by being great passers and Griffin
just averaged 5.3 assists per game for the 2014-2015 season. On two point field
goals total he shoots close to fifty percent every year and around 75% when
he’s less than 3 feet in. He has been one of the major reasons the Clippers are
no the hottest team in LA and a regular contender. As he continues to hone his
game, I see him developing into a regular MVP candidate as the years go on.
It’s tough to say the Clippers went wrong with this one (which isn’t what you
can say for a lot of Clipper number one picks).
Player: Hasheem Thabeet, 2.2 PTS, 2.7 BOARDS, 2nd
Pick to Memphis Grizzles
For a guy who averaged 10.3 PTS and 8.5 Boards a game in
college, I think the expectations did not match what realistically Thabeet
could come in and do. But...hindsight is always 20/20. The Grizzles brought him in expecting a great
defensive and rebounding presence and weren’t able to coax any of those things
out of him. If you get sent down to the
D-League after getting picked number 2, clearly there’s more going on with you
than was anticipated. When you see James Harden, Stephen Curry and DeMar Rozan
were taken after this guy you wonder what Memphis was thinking. It seems ludicrous
now to value a seventh footer as a defensive specialist over a pure scorer or
jump shooting specialist. But, to soften the blow, I think it is the rare case
where three guys from the top 10 exceeded expectations. No one thought that the
two MVP candidates out of this top 10 would end up being Curry and Harden. As
with Greg Oden and Sam Bowie, it sucks for Thabeet that a team took a chance on
him before these two All Stars.
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