Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Waking Up in a Trump America


My body did not want to accept that it needed sleep. Even as I sat on the couch, flipping back and forth between the media powers and Seinfeld (a needed break to keep from chewing my finger nails off), I had yet to come to grips with the conclusion that Donald Trump would be President. Yes, that Donald Trump. The same Apprentice hosting, Casino owning, model marrying Donald Trump. The same man who had managed to alienate every minority group in the country, who had made fact checking a national sport, and who had blabbered through three national debates without an ounce of preparation or any statement that could be defined as “carrying substance or meaning” was about to win Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and the damn Presidency.  I was completely caught off guard.

My mind kept running through all of the scenarios I had digested the past few months. The map came into focus and fewer and fewer paths remained open to stop this misogynist, racist heap of failing wig. There was only one outcome and my mind, my presumed all-knowing of America mind, did not want to give the idea any credence. No, no the understanding could be left for latter. Now was the time to question everything, to even think about the rigging of an election, to think about what groups didn’t make it out, to think about the suppression of the Latino vote in my home state, and to swear up and down that there were more like minded people out there. It was time to be that crazy flag waving loser that I was convinced the other side would have morphed into if the roles would have been reversed. If they can get away with it, why can’t I? Why would anyone expect a rational reaction from anyone in this election? After all we had been through didn’t it make sense to retreat back to our respected corners, lick our wounds, and hope for a speedy four years until we could line up again on each respective side to laugh in our presumed enemies defeat? That would be the easy thing to do.

That’s what my mind told me as I threw a pillow from my couch after Florida was announced in Trump’s favor. After emphatically proclaiming the death of intellectualism in America and shaking my head in concurrence with a few resounding comments on my Facebook feed, I thought of what my America was. I knew it was not what Trump had proclaimed-this dreary, third world of a country, with no jobs and no one to stick up for the common man. America was not that and it had taken many years, many deaths, and many fights far grander than this election to get away from the resounding racism that had infected our country for so long. Trump’s America was not meant to be a melting pot but was meant to be shut in, isolated, and contained. This bully of a man was not the figurehead of my America. I didn’t understand.

For the first time in my voting life I was with the minority, on the losing side. It was emotional and taxing to not what to scream at the top of my lungs. How could all of what he said have gone unnoticed by all of those people? How can you excuse suggesting immigration policy based off of religion? An undeniable right of this great country. How can you excuse the degradation of women? How can you tell your daughter, sister, or wife that this is a man that should represent ALL Americans, men and women? How can you tell your kids that the most intelligent, best tempered, and uniting people become President? How can we sit here and say George Washington, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Abraham Lincoln and….Donald Trump?

I tossed and turned all night with these questions-expecting each turn or drop of sweat to magically awaken me from a pre-election nightmare. It never came and it was only the Google electoral tracker that brought it all home to me the next morning. It quelled my angry and alerted me to the change in the aura of the country. My door unlocked all the same, my car started, my office coffee still sucked but it was all different as it was in a Trump America. The country had shown me what it was actually thinking in a most rude and unapologetic way. The country even had the foresight to give me four long years to digest and learn from it all. It gave me a silver lining. I realized-finally with the only clarity that a national election can give-that we were all hurting.

Most of these people hadn’t voted for him out of agreeability but more out of an anti-establishment sentiment. The two party system had wrecked America. We had become so blinded on our own respective sides, so out of touch, that we could not even make out the other side and their own opinions, wants, and needs.  We were all forever polarized, stunk on our respective ends without the slightest inkling to think about each other or what had gotten us there in the first place. We were bound to wander aimlessly with other likeminded individuals who only could compartmentalize cause and effects for their problems instead of examining a worldwide view of interconnectedness that points to not one solution but many. We were left in our corner feeling like we were owed a democracy without participation, representation without offering our voice, and socialistic values without giving our own sacrifice and work. We all had forgotten that there are no winners or losers in an election but only an assured four years of being.

It’s not going to matter in a week who you voted for. Hell, it doesn’t even matter now. The only thing that matters is where we go from here. And….guess what….the other 65 million people or so who voted for Clinton, Johnson, Stein, or others will be along for the ride. We’re all in this together. There is no victory lap because nothing has been won, there are no spoils because nothing has been conquered, and there should be no reaction because there has been plenty of inaction. Let’s all realize that this is merely a look in the mirror. This isn’t us getting dressed and seizing the day. Leave the petty name calling, the grouping, and the dangerous generalizations for an America that’s not a melting pot, that’s not a cultural mecca, that’s not the land where anyone, anywhere, can do anything.

Go back to your own delusional idea of America if you don’t want to make progress. Go back to your corners and be the same person in four years that you are now. That’s the easy thing to do! Repeat the cycle and you’ll continue to think of yourself as a winner or a loser instead of as an American! Do all that and this election would have been for nothing. This great look at us, this self-realization of the need to be moderate would have flown by us as quickly as the many lies that were spewed in this election. If we don’t settle with each other, if we don’t try to learn, and if we don’t try to fight for the inclusion that is the foundation of this country then we will all crumble.

Realize that this isn’t the victor’s country but it is the country of the tired, the poor, the huddled masses who yearn to breathe free. Realize that this is larger than any of our little versions of America. This is about compromise, this is about respect and about homage to many generations before us. Realize that one man cannot be America without the people. Realize that we are a light of the world, that our country is never as bad as the media makes it seem and that millions come here every day because of opportunity, because of inclusion, and because of the promise of chance. We just received a chance to show the world that we’re above one person and one thought. What will we do with that chance?

Monday, May 16, 2016

The Irony of Hating Trump


I felt as if I were stuck in quick sand-sitting at a bar in downtown Phoenix talking about economics and politics that my supposed millennial, no student loan privileged ass had no place talking about. With every thought or sentence I would sink more and more into the quick sand that was my own white privilege where I was well off enough to actually care about these things, to have the energy to talk about them over a beer, a meal, and ambience. I would sink in until I would eventually collapse into myself, realizing that I was not talking to others but more to my own mind, trying to sort through the labyrinth of conflicting principles that my moderate head kept throwing out. See…I was living on the cusp of a world that, for the next seven months, was not going to allow me to camp out in the middle with my comforting and easy moderate views. Primary season was ending and the general election was coming.

             The last general election was like a mirage or a fossilized Rosetta stone that I had yet to decipher.  If you asked me who Obama beat it would take me a minute to realize it wasn’t John Kerry. For all of the coverage, pageantry, and outlandish behavior that come from any election season it is rare that those who were in it recall the time fondly or in great detail at all. It’s like surviving a storm and it is okay if not accepted that any question of presence is met with an answer “Yes...I was there.”  No other response is needed and at the conclusion the country goes back to clicking headlines, posting videos, and questioning why nothing ever seems to get done. It’s a cycle that has become so monotonous that it often breeds immediate misremembrance, like the work week or whether or not the dishes are clean or dirty. Then something like Donald Trump happens.

                All of the media, liberal and conservative, were scrambling around as if a flash grenade had just gone off, disorientated, fumbling, and maybe even blaming themselves in a moment that should not have been self-righteous. (Than again, when you are a talking head, when is any moment not self-righteous?) They couldn’t even remember when it had all started or when it had even gained steam. Up until Indiana they were all still convinced that it couldn’t work, that the man that Donald Trump was and the sacred office that was President of the United States could not be one election away from meeting. The campaign was fleeting, people were too pissed off, he had alienated too many, he was too brash, he was stumbling, he was on the god damn Celebrity Apprentice, there were protesters, they were fighting, Ted Cruz, Paul Ryan, CONTESTED CONVENTION! All of the glory that the chaos had brought to these media pundits had evaporated away with the conjuring of the most unlikely of scenarios. The very people whose eyes they wanted had done them one better and done something that they all never wanted: nominated Donald Trump. 

                In a time where the financial mat was most recently pulled out from under the feet of hard working Americans and in a time where financial institutions seemed to be as cared for and coddled as a new born baby, control and accountability was no longer democratized but capitalized. The people who had suffered the most had been shut out and punished seemingly more than the crooks who had put them there. Most of the time these people didn’t even know it and kept chugging along, searching for that idea of an American dream that they whole heartrendingly wanted to believe still existed. They would continue like this, the silent, seemingly stubborn majority of America that has too many scattered voices and spectrums to unite as one. News stations would indirectly talk about their fates through cryptic headlines of housing markets and job reports; making sure to never refer to them directly by name. Maybe this was all proper controlling by the media, for they knew if they called them out, if the presumptive hornets’ nest was tapped, that the silent majority of the country would begin to develop a voice.  That’s a stretch in and of itself when talking about a purely reactive industry where the daily clicks matter more than the long, drawn out journalistic pieces that are believed to not warrant anyone’s attention. More than likely they were beat to the punch by Donald Trump who, whether accidently or intentionally, stumbled upon this hornets’ nest.

                 I like to think it was accidently because that’s the only way I can justify this long shot becoming a reality. A reality so random that it could have only been brought about by accident and that the rhetoric, the outrageousness that he said at the beginning of it all-the call to ban all Muslims, the call for Mexico to pay for a wall on the border, the take your pick buffet of sexist comments-was all to only gain some air time with the media and maybe just get his name out there again. Free press for a crazy and wacky campaign. To me there couldn’t have been any rhythm or reason to it because that would go against what I thought of a nominee, who they should be, how moderate they should be. My privileged mind could not fathom how the Republicans could imagine winning with this candidate. Only then did I realize that the media, papers, internet, and I were not thinking of the same Republicans. We were thinking only of the generalized Republican.

                 It had been drummed into our brains for years, ever since defense spending was rampant and everybody’s angry Grandpa was labeled as a Republican. The Dems were for the little guys, the disenfranchised, those whose voices were plugged out by the Koch brothers and corporations that wanted women to keep their babies and criminals to die horrible deaths. That’s what we had been taught; that trust fund kids were voting for Bush and they would keep doing it to get the tax breaks. It all seemed to make sense because Obama offered that hope and McCain and Romney were so white, so establishment, that they fit that stereotype of working against the silent majority, not understanding, not relating. Who would have thought that a white billionaire would be the man to show the disarray in all this? To show the gross prejudice that had been eroding right under the eyes of America. The Republican party was being taken over.

                The money and pundits didn’t matter. The gasps for Meghan Kelly, the protesters at the rallies, and comment after comment that most were convinced would be the last knife in the back; it all didn’t matter. All of the perceived Republicans, the sweater vest wearing, boat sailing, and entitled hoard, were not showing up at the polls. It was a different kind of crowd. An angry, revolutionary type crowd. They were disenfranchised, ignored, the crowd that the perceived Republicans had been brushing over all of these years, not trying to corral but not necessarily alienating.  Maybe these people agreed with some of the craziness that Trump possessed but I don’t necessarily think so. I just think they wanted to see if they still had the power and if the big money could be beat because that’s the irony of all of this: Trumps meteoric rise to party nominee is the most American thing to happen in any primary.

                His politics aren’t in the mold of the fore fathers and his alienation of a number of demographics goes against all that this country stands for but it cannot be argued that the power of democracy has not been better shown than in this Republican primary of 2016. There was no good ol’ boy candidate. There was no candidate backed by money or name recognition. There was only an outsider, a person who had tapped a nerve among a population that was searching for a figurehead more than a voice. They didn’t want the politics or the rhetoric-they wanted a change. The voters wanted someone different, someone not of the mold, someone who wasn’t the electable plug and chug, a person who would bring change, even if it would be outrageous. They wanted to be reminded again that they had a voice, that they could make a difference.

                Now, maybe this general election turns back to normalcy and the true moderate colors of American show themselves in November and I breath a sign of relief. Even if this is the case, we all would have still seen a seismic shift in the Grand Ol’ Party. The importance of this primary would still not be overshadowed by what might end up being a not very close general election. It would be remembered as a time where voters found a different, if not troubled voice again, over a decade after the popular vote didn’t decide an election. There are inklings of even the Democrat side finding a new voice-where a young, presumably entitled and debt ridden populace is making a seventy something socialist relevant long after the math has not been in his favor.
                It all points to something profound and revolutionary and…inherently American.  

Thursday, August 13, 2015

The Rough Draft: Fantasy Football Mock Draft Rounds 1 and 2


With any story you begin with a rough draft. This is usually a broad stroke of what you want out of the story and is rarely the end product that you get after rewriting, rewriting, rewriting and...you get the picture. The same can be said for any fantasy football draft that you’ll be participating in. Sure, if you’re in a ten team league maybe five out of those ten picks in the first round will live up to the hype but your team at the end of the year will most likely be something completely different than you thought it would be. But, if you’re consistent and have a set idea of the broad characteristics you want out of your team, you will be happy with your draft and eventually your end of year team. You will be able to say that you got the most out of where you drafted and the ever infamous waiver wire.

Now, everyone has their rough drafts that they love to read and dissect. I’m a big Matthew Berry and Michael Fabino fan and if I didn’t have work I could spend an unhealthy amount of time dissecting my each and every move depending on where I’m sitting in the draft. But, no one has that time unless it’s their job or their down to alienate all of their friends (who happen to be in the same league). I say do a few mock drafts at different positions, read a few articles, maybe even come up with a top 100 ranking but, don’t get all nerdy on it. The only thing I’m going to stand by with this mock draft is the awesome team names (less than 15 characters).  Read, think about the picks and let me know what you think.  Most of the fun of the draft is in the debate.

  1. The Gronkiees- Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks

The Gronkiees, an ode to The Monkeys or a great 80’s movie, are in a tough spot. The pick will be open for debate and is the most wide open number one pick in recent memory. Last year AP was clearly the guy, coming off his almost record breaking season and seeming inhuman to most. This year does not offer that clear cut of a pick like an AP or LT. That’s what makes RB such a special position: it’s scarcity of reliable guys. It’s the reason the overall point totals don’t correspond to draft position. If that were the case, Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck would go 1 and 2.

This year, there are five RBs that will probably go within the first six picks (because someone is going to reach and choose Antonio Brown). After the top five guys, the drop off is unlike any other position. It’s tempting to throw Levon Bell in here but in any uber-competitive league the difference between the playoffs can be very small and the two game suspension might not be something you can afford. That’s why you go with Mr. Reliable.  Lynch is a work horse, who is the bane of any Packer fans existence (that NFC championship game will stick with me until I die). He’s played in all 16 games the past three seasons and has only missed 5 games within the past five seasons. If it means anything to you, he’s 29 and hasn’t reached that voodoo age of 30 where everyone starts yelling stay away! I like guys who you know are going to get the majority of carries and who have the running style to stay in at the goal line. The ‘Hawks will be back with extra motivated this year and Lynch will be out to show why they don’t have to pay Wilson Rodgers like money.


2.       CauseIWasBlount- Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs

There’s got to be a name that will give us an ode to the possible anthem for Millennials and one that points at the other man in the car with LeVon Bell hot boxing it up. It would be ironic if Bell was taken here, especially with this name, but it wouldn’t be at all surprisingly. If not for the two game suspension he’s going in the top three at least. But, CauseIWasBlount plays this pick sober and goes with another Mr. Reliable candidate. Yes, you’re going to have to put up with the puzzling play calling of Andy Reid as any sane person knows Charles should touch the ball on every play (said every frustrated fantasy owner every) but there’s no RB who is relied upon more in their offense than Charles. Just because the Chiefs got Maclin doesn’t mean Alex Smith is going to start slinging the ball left and right. This is still going to be Charles’s offense and Smith is still going to be checking down and watching Charles do his thing. I look for Reid to utilize him a little more in the run game and for Charles to have another top ten RB season.

  1. 12thDouchers-Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers

Here LeVon Bell has to start to coming into consideration if only from a value standpoint. Where Bell goes will dictate the whole first round as it will signify how RBs are valued in your league. This 12th Man deprecating team has had too many slow starts to a season to want their number 1 RB to be out the first two games so they go with a rising star.  As pointed out before, I think five guys are in the running for number one and all have their pros and cons. Lacy came into the league as a bell cow and his tough uphill running style complimented the high flying aerial attack of the Packers well. He averaged 4.6 yards a carry last year but, more importantly, turned into a legitimate receiving threat out of the backfield.  Lacy’s 1,139 yards out of the backfield aren’t going to jump out but his 457 receiving yards definitely stand out and are the main reason why he should be more heavily wanted than a Adrian Peterson. It’s no accident that one of the best RBs happens to be with the best QB.

4.       1.21JJWatts- Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings

 
There won’t be as stupendous of a reaction as a patent Doc Brown exclamation when he goes off the board but be sure that if you take Peterson you will do it with a little more heightened nerves than any other RB in the first round. The argument goes both ways: he practically didn’t play last year so he’s fresh and ready or....the drop off was already happening and it’s just going to continue. Coming off that knee injury, Adrian Peterson legitimately could be labeled as alien, not of this world, possessing something that had never, ever been seen before. He averaged six yards a carry and led the Vikings to the playoffs. Literally, he carried them on his back. Coming off that out of this world year he still averaged 4.5 yards a pop over 14 played games. I wouldn’t call that a drop off but a return to consistency. Good running backs have out of this world years: Jim Brown 1963, Walter Payton 1977, Barry Sanders 1997, Emmitt Smith 1995, LaDainian Tomlinson 2006 but what makes all of these guys and AP great is that they revert back to consistency barring injury. LT followed his year up with 1,474, Jim Brown with 1,446, Walter Payton with 1,395 and plenty of people would not be surprised if AP returned to 1,400 and top 5 RB status. Hell, writing this I might just be convincing myself he should be number 1. These top five guys are really all interchangeable and that’s what makes you question a RB coming back after one year off.

 
5.       HouseManning-Le’Veon Bell, RB Steelers

 
The team with the subtle Game of Thrones reference doesn’t want to end up with a subpar RB1 more RB2 and goes with the trend. This is a possible position to maybe reach and you could start to see people talk themselves into taking an Antonio Brown or even a Demaryius Thomas but, at five, you might not like your RB options when the second round comes up.  With Bell, you get a possible number 1 pick at 5 and there’s nothing like good value. At five you’re in a good position of getting an Odell Beckham Jr. or even a Jordy Nelson in the second round and it’s paramount to have two number ones at RB and WR as you can wait a while to get a serviceable QB1.  There’s such a gap between the potential of Bell and the next RB Arian Foster that the two game suspension should not concern you.


6.       SippinFortes- Antonio Brown, WR Steelers

 
With the uncertainity surrounding Arian Foster, no other running back is worthy of being chosen before Mr. Brown. This is still a tricky selection because the seventh, eighth, ninth, tenth, eleventh and twelfth spots might just over draft out of free of losing out on some RBs and your reach might turn out to be catastrophic or the Brown selection could set up a run on WR1 and LeSean McCoy could be sitting there when it snakes back around to the sixth spot. The way I would approach this is ask yourself if you’d rather lose out on C.J. Anderson, Matt Forte, DeMarco Murray and LeSean McCoy or on Brown, Demaryius, Bryant, or Odell Beckham? I’d rather not get those RB’s and maybe get two number one WR and reach a little on a guy like Alfred Morris or Mark Ingram. The top flight WRs are similar to the top RBs where in there are few consistent performers and more candidates that are boom or bust. That’s why a consistent, top flight guy like Brown makes sense over a hit or miss C.J. Anderson or a new team LeSean McCoy.

 

7.       TheManizelGuild- Matt Forte, RB Bears

 
They could overreact a little, cry over the tough draft spot and pick a WR after seeing Brown go or they block out the opinions, haters and go with a good old faithful in Mr. Forte.  It would be tough here not to go with a Demaryius Thomas but it would also be tough to not have an RB you like. You have to ask yourself if you think any of those other WRs are as elite as Brown. I think not, but we agree to disagree. Drafting at these particular spots all come down to how much success who’ve had with teams where you had weaker RBs and strength in other positions. With the game moving more toward the pass, this decision might get easier in the future but now it’s still tough. Forte gives you consistency and is in an offense that doesn’t want to overly rely on their mistake prone QB. I’ll be interested to see what his work load stays at and whether or not that plunges his points but at number 8 he’s worth a draft based he’s consistently finished as a top 10 RB. 


8.       BadBrady- LeSean McCoy, RB, Bills


First it was CallMeBrady and now we have to get a deflategate/Taylor Swift name in here to describe the leagues pretty boy.  Surprisingly the T. Swift loving Fantasy Football Fan does not get too emotional or broken up about this pick.  At the end of the year there weren’t too many people out there who would have thought Foles and McCoy would be off the Eagles. I would be surprised if Chip Kelly even thought that. Maybe he just did it to put all us fantasy players in quite the predicament, asking the same question that any offensive player who played for Chip in college got when coming into the draft: are the numbers all based on the system? Shady enjoyed his best fantasy year under Chip and followed it up with a top 15 RB season last year. His receiving yards fell off in a big way (539 to 155) and it didn’t help that Foles got hurt and Mark Sanchez had to steer the ship for a while. The QB situation in Buffalo is murky and worse than what he had in Philly last year but that could play into McCoy’s favor. I see Shady being more of a vocal point in the Bills attack than a generic cog that RBs seem to become in Chip Kelly’s system. Based off past performance and expected volume, Shady could end up being a steal this late in the first round.

 

9.       ItWasABrees- C.J. Anderson, RB Broncos

 

It’s tough to balance between drafting based off potential and proven track record. C.J. Anderson makes this especially tough.  He’s in a new, friendly Gary Kubiak system and pushed plenty of teams into the Fantasy playoffs as the waiver pickup of the year last year, going over 160 yards rushing for two weeks against the Dolphins and Chiefs in weeks 11 and 12. If there’s anyone who stands to charge up plenty of boards between now and September it is definitely CJ Anderson. I think at this spot he’s a good value pick but I wouldn’t take him any higher. A good half year does not make one a fantasy star.

 

10.    GronksFollies- DeMarco Murray, RB, Eagles 

Murray was the undisputed top RB last year and, if he would have stayed with the ‘Boys, might be one of your top 5 RBs because of that O-line. The work load is concerning and this will be a true measure of Murray as a RB to see how he follows up a plus 1800 rushing yard season. You’re not going to see as many attempts out of him with the loaded Eagles back field and it will be tricky for the first few weeks to trust that Chip Kelly will do anything you think he’s going to do. The risk is worth the reward in this case because you have a potential RB1 at 11 and you can get a legit WR1 when it swings back around to you. The better combo is a Murray and Julio Jones as opposed to a Julio and Lamar Miller.

11.    DaltonHasNoSoul- Jeremy Hill, RB, Bengals

South Park fans will appreciate this team name. These last two spots are where it gets interesting, especially at eleven. With the snack draft there is now only one person with two picks between your first and second picks. This spot might be the novice of the league or it could be the consistent, two RBs, WR and QB guy. The characteristics and preferences of the number 12 guy or lady will definitely have to be considered if you’re at 11 as you’ll both be looking at the same players.  If it’s me at 12 I’m looking RB and WR because the drop off on RB is starting to get steep.  That’s why at 11, you need to reach for an RB.  Hill has been going early second round and, even though he is paired with Gio Bernard, still has a good shot to put up RB1 numbers as a north-south runner who will get plenty of goal line chances. Even with the split backfield, Hill managed to go for 1124 yards and 9 TDs which was good for the 10th best RB in NFL.com fantasy. It’s great value at this point to get a guy who has the capability for a top 5 finish.


12.   JPPsIndex- Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys

 
Fireworks can bring about good fantasy names. After scoring a new 5 year, 70 million dollar Dez is a Cowboy for the foreseeable future and Tony Romo is mighty happy. Demaryius Thomas might strike some as a good pick here but I like the ‘Boys as a better team this year and when it’s that close, you go with the better team. Bryant has a proven track record of going over 1300 receiving yards and 12 or more TDs the past three years and the ‘Boys get a slate of inter-conference games against the NFC South (3 of the four teams were in the bottom ten in passing yards allowed last year).  I also think that the Broncos offense is going to scale back to being more balanced, much like the Cowboys, thus eliminating more “shots on goal” for Manning to Thomas. It comes down to opinion when you have two players that are so close and my bet is on Romo to Bryant to be the better combo.  


13.   JPPsIndex- Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers

 
Man, man, man...sometimes being the last pick really sucks. All of the good RBs are gone and you’re looking at a long, 23 picks until you choose twice again. It makes this twelve spot a curse and a blessing. That’s why you should go for a number one player at another position instead of reaching for an RB.  In my mind it’s between Gronk and A-Rod now and you have to go with the number 1 scoring player in fantasy last year. The devaluing of the RB in play calling is not exaggerated as the rules have been blended, watered down or skewed to fit the aerial ball, the thing the pundits think sell tickets and cheers. Personally, if I want a lot of passing and no balance I’ll watch college football but that’s a whole other article. As long as Rodgers stays healthy, he’s the best QB in the game and the only one worth an early second round look. If you need numbers to convince you then you’re not a football fan.


14.   DaltonHasNoSoul-Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos


With a possible RB1 now it’s time to go out and get sure fire WR1. I’ve been seeing Gronk before Thomas in some drafts and I don’t really get the reasoning. Manning is still a very good QB and the Broncos are not going to pay Thomas like they just did and not use him to his full potential.  He gained the second most yards behind Brown and also had the most targets out of anyone in the league. Last year I had Thomas and I will always remember the first three games where he averaged 47 yards a game and only got one TD but I will also be reminded of the week four 226 yards and 2 TD game and the great string of 100 yard receiving games from week five to ten. A great defense can stop most receivers and it’s the nature of position to have off weeks but if you’re sitting here and Thomas falls, you should be licking your chops.

 

15.   GronksFollies –Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers

 
Now, if we’re just going by name the pick is obvious here and if I’m following other mock drafts I follow suit and insert Gronk. As with anything, I have my reasons. Gronk was hurt and getting back into his groove early last year and I’m not going to hold those numbers against him but I can’t ignore the injury history. It might be hard to believe right now but there are actually 6 WRs available who got more points than Gronk last year: Jordy, Odell, Randall Cobb, Emmanuel Sanders, Julio Jones and Jeremy Maclin. You can throw out Maclin cause a Cheifs wideout shouldn’t be considered a number 1 and I think it will tough for Sanders to duplicate last years unexpected success. But, there are still four viable options who you know are going to get a healthy dose of targets. Surprisingly even with Cobb in the same offense, Nelson had the fourth most targets last season and was tied with Demaryius Thomas for second most fantasy points among WRs. Even with an injured Rodgers in 2013 for four games, Nelson was still the 11th best scoring wideout. At this point, you’re looking for a WR1 and Nelson is the clear favorite with the best QB in the league.


16.   ItWasABrees –Julio Jones, WR, Falcons

 
Drafts often take on a live of their own that doesn’t correspond to any projections or prior thoughts. If anyone senses that they’re going to miss out on something good, in this case a WR1, they’ll jump on the opportunity as soon as they can. ItWasABrees had to settle for a lower tier RB1 but on the turnaround they get a quality WR1 and will be in position to still end up as a Drew Brees namesake. They could even wait a longer time and get Matt Ryan. No QB had a quieter top 10 overall fantasy season than Matty Ice. The defense isn’t much improved so you know the Falcons are going to be slinging it regularly. If Jones stays healthy, you can write him in for plus 1200 yards and around 6 or 7 TDs and that’s the bare minimum. He was third in yards last year and third in targets so you know Matty Ice is looking his way. With Roddy White starting to slow down, look for Julio to challenge for the number one WR spot in fantasy.


17.   BadBrady-Rob Gronkowski, TE Patriots


Last year he had one more TD than Thomas and went for 1,124 yards, making him the top TE by 30 points on NFL.com.  If you’re comparing his past season production with WR’s than he was better than Mike Evans and worse than Jeremy Maclin, right at the number 10 top wideout. With Juilo gone, this is where it starts to make sense to take a guy like Gronk. I would still go for Odell Beckham and maybe Calvin Johnson before Gronk but this pick is more based off where I think he is going to go. He might go higher if you have a Patroits fan in the bunch but the second TE will not shortly follow him unless you have a big Seahawks fan.

 
18.   TheManizelGuild- Odell Beckham Jr, WR, New York Giants

 
Beckham tore the league up last year, leading the finest pack of rookie wide receivers in recent memory. The very appealing part about Beckham and one that might get him picked before a Julio or a Gronk, is that he put up 1305 yards with 12 TDs in only 12 games. The caution is that he only has one year under his belt. More cautious players might want to go with consistency and pick a guy like Calvin Johnson or Randall Cobb but I think the ceiling is too high to pass up on this guy at this point in the second round. Eli should grasp the offense a little better and now that he has options in Cruz and Beckham, he might not feel as if he has to force so many balls. The questions will be if the Giants will be able to balance the pass with the run and confuse opposing defenses more.  The Giants get the NFC South this year as well, which will go a long ways in helping Beckham tear it up again.


19.    SippinFortes- Andrew Luck, QB, Colts


By taking Brown in the first round this makes this a tough spot to draft because anything besides a wideout will be a reach. But, you already have the best wideout on your team so it makes not reaching difficult. You could go with another wideout and plan on being heavy there but you stand the chance of missing out on a top flight QB by the time you pick again. I think the best bet is to make sure you’re starters are good at each position as opposed to having a great position of players. Sure, you might get stuck with a subpar RB but the two player combo of Luck and Brown will make up for the points you won’t get with an Ingram or an Ellington. Rodgers only beat Luck at as the top fantasy scorer by 2.4 points and he gets an added weapon in Andre Johnson to help in the red zone. You know he’s going to get the attempts as no other offense relies upon their QB more than the Colts and there is the rushing affect that so many people forget (273 yards, 3 TDs). He has more early third round value but with how SippinFortes picked in the first round, this is the best option.


20.     HouseManning- AJ Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

A healthy AJ Green averages 1278 yards and roughly 8 TDs a season. He was a top five fantasy WR in 2012 and 2013 and still put up a respectable 1,041 yards and 6 TDs last year. Green is a nice pick here because of the chemistry with Andy Dalton. This is a make or break year for Dalton as he needs to rise to the occasion and lead the team to a playoff win. That means plenty of looks for Mr. Green. Sure, he was hurt three games last year but everyone comes with an injury risk. You have to like him because of his past production and because the supposed AFC North bruising, non-offense style of play has gone the way of the Dodo bird.


21.   1.21JJWatts-Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions

If we’re going off past performance, Calvin would probably be the first WR taken off the board. Last season, where Johnson was not even the Lions leading WR (Golden Tate), has started whispers and conversations that the man has begun to fall off.  Granted he’s entering his ninth season and ever since his record breaking 1964 yard receiving year his per game average has gone from 122.8 down to 82.8  but....we’re still talking about Calvin Freaking Johnson! Optimus Prime, man, the guy who put up 1331 yards and 12 TDs for an 0-16 team! One year does not make a man but it can allow for a diamond to fall right into your lap. The Lions are a potent offense with a piece in Tate that now takes the pressure away from Johnson. I see him thriving this year and showing everyone that he’s still the best wideout in the game.


22.   12thDouchers- Alshon Jeffery, WR, Chicago Bears

The next slew of wide outs are all very close which makes this draft position tough.  It’s not out of the question to maybe start thinking of reaching a little for Russel Wilson if you really like him but I would advise against it. Since it’s going to be a few until the draft snakes back around, you can still count on getting a serviceable low end QB-1 but not necessarily a good WR.  If you’re a Packer fan maybe you take Cobb but the thing to like about Jeffery is he’s the number 1 guy in Chicago which you can’t say about Cobb.  He upped his TD total to 10 last year and was close to 1200 receiving yards. There is uncertainty with Cutler but that’s more expected than anything and Jeffery has shown he can still thrive with that inconsistency as he finished just outside the top 10 wide receivers in scoring.  It will be an added bonus if Kevin White develops quickly and is able to take some of the pressure off of Jeffery.


23.   CauseIWasBlount- Randall Cobb, WR, Green Bay Packers

Even though you could say he was a second target on his team, Cobb still produced a top 10 WR finish last year with 1,287 yards and 12 TDs. The TDs are the real nice thing about Cobb and his ability to get yards after the catch can turn standard plays into home runs.  Last year was his first full healthy year and he turned his yardage, catch average and TD totals into career highs. With a nice new contract and the league’s best QB I would expect nothing less than a top 10 finish as long as he stays healthy. At this point in the draft you can’t pass up a consistent number 1 receiver.


24.   The Gronkiees- T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts

Finally, the Gronkiees get another pick. With back to back they can go with any two player combination they see fit. If they feel like putting the eggs into one particular offense Russel Wilson would be an interesting pick at the beginning of the third round. For the lack of passing he does, he makes up for it in the rushing. That added facet of his game elevates him above a Peyton Manning or a Drew Brees in my opinion because you don’t just have a one trick pony. I could also see a want to bolster the RB spot and get a Mark Ingram or an Alfred Morris. Most teams won’t be able to have two quality starting RBs and this is a tempting position to be in. Regardless, a number one wideout is a must. Mike Evans could be an opition here but I don’t like counting on rookie QBs with my number one wideout which is why T.Y. Hilton makes sense. The diminutive wideout has surprised everyone by going over 1000 yards in two straight seasons and getting 5 and 7 TDs respectively. There is concern that Andre Johnson will steal some targets, especially in the red zone, but Hilton will make up for it in his ability for the big play (16.4 yards per reception, sixth best in the league last year). As him and Luck continue to develop into one of the best tandems in the league, look for Hilton to show everyone why he is needed in Indy.  

 

That’s the whole first two rounds somewhat dissected and planned out. That’s the easy part about mock drafts, though, is that the writer can always follow a plan. The bad thing about regular drafts is it’s not up to you. The available players are dictated by the unknown, quizzical faces staring at a different computer monitor than you are or the wing stuffed month who just wants to know if Michael Vick got picked up by anyone. It’s a crab shoot at the end of the day but it’s good to have a strategy, to think about the draft as a whole 12 rounds and what not, instead of a spur of the moment thing. Think about that pick two rounds from now, think about what you want your team to look like if you’re picking at the top or the bottom. Sure, some choices aren’t going to be popular but it just matters if you like what you see at the end. Good luck and remember, you’re team will all go to shit at the first bye week anyway.

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Is Big Better? (Strategy of the NBA Draft Part 2)


2010 NBA Draft

Player: Derrick Favors, 10.9 PTS, 7.2 BOARDS, 23.7 WS, 3rd Pick to Toronto 

We’re quick to forget about a lot of people. If you would have asked me if Derrick Favors was still playing in the league before this article I would have had to really think about it. I guess if he’s playing in Utah it is kind of like not playing in the NBA but that’s a whole other story. Just ask Enes Kanter. Favors has quietly carved out a nice little stat line with the Jazz the past few years. He’s close to a double, double and him and John Wall have close to the same number of win shares (25.9 as compared to 23.7). He needs to get closer to being a close range 50% shooter and try to get some semblance of a mid range game (22% last year) but, there’s only so much you can ask. For the big men of today and what they’re being asked to do, his numbers are right there. He was lucky to have come out in 2010, as a guy like him doesn’t get taken third in drafts now-a-days.

Player: DeMarcus Cousins, 18.9 PTS, 10.6 BOARDS, 23.6 WS, 5TH Pick Sacramento Kings

A polarizing figure due to his personality but no one can argue that he is an All-Star quality player year in and year out. No one can argue his skill set and I think the attitude gets a bit overblown. I would probably act like Cousins if I had to survive in an organization as dysfunctional as the Sacramento Kings. Any team that could potentially chose to have three different head coaches in less than a year should be taken over by the NBA for gross incompetence. Some might say he wouldn’t put up these numbers if he wasn’t on the Kings but I see skills that would translate anywhere. It’s not his fault he is the vocal point of a team and can’t find anyone else who can make a shot. If the basketball Gods are good, the Lakers will find a way to land him.

Player: Greg Monroe, 14.3 PTS, 9.2 BOARDS, 7th Pick Detroit Pistons

Another guy who I would have loved to see on the Lakers and who would be best served parting ways with his current organization (the Bucks though? Really??? Just kinding. I’d pick them over the Lakers too). They tried and I think, with Stan the Man at the helm, Detroit will eventually turn it around but if you don’t want to start a guy like Greg Monroe, than there’s no point in keeping him. Monroe has the numbers to make him an attractive commodity and fits the mold of what big men are being asked to do now-a-days. His game doesn’t venture to far from the basket and you’d like for him to be more of a presence on the offensive boards but he will be a good complimentary piece in Milwaukee.  Sadly he won’t provide seventh pick value for the original team but I could see him as the player that gets the Bucks to the second round of the playoffs and maybe to contenders in three years.

2011 NBA Draft

Player: Enes Kanter, 10.4 PTS, 8.4 BOARDS, 12.7 WS, 3rd Pick Utah Jazz

The guy doesn’t like venturing three feet or more from the basket and he’s not a big fan of Utah as previously mentioned and...I think guys like this, like Jahill Okafor or a Joel Embid, will continue to slip little by little as more and more drafts unfold. The big man is becoming more versatile and teams want him to be more of a Swiss Army Knife than a one trick, back to the basket pony. Kanter is close to a double double and does fit into a needed role but it is a role that will be featured less and less as the game gets faster and spreads out more. But as long as he can board, he’ll still get a paycheck.

Player: Tristan Thompson, 10.1 PTS, 8.4 BOARDS, 18.9 WS, 4th Pick Cleveland Cavaliers

Five years, 80 million. That’s what a year in the playoffs averaging 10.8 boards and 9.6 pts will get you. Good for Thompson to take advantage of a Kevin Love injury and show his defensive prowess. That’s about the only thing he has on Love. He saw his point’s average dip this year but that’s bound to happen with Love and Lebron coming on and he might just play better without having to be relied upon as a scoring threat. It helps too that he’ll have a healthy Irving and James to set him up. It will be interesting to see how he and Love coexist on a Cavs team that needs to stay healthy to contend with the West.

Player: Jonas Valanciunas, 10.9 PTS, 8.7 Boards, 5th Pick to the Toronto Raptors

Everyone needs to start taking notice for the basketball team forming north of the boarder. DeRozen, Lowry and this sneaky good Valanciunas are forming a core that will be right there with the Bulls for second best in the East and may be able to catch the Cavs if Lebron ever starts showing his minutes and age. If you want to win a few bucks, bet your buddies that he was a top five pick and I’m sure one of them will say no. His point totals have risen along with his FG percentage the past three years and his total boards have increased as well. Now, should Kawhi Leonard, picked at 15, have been a top 10 pick? It depends on how you value these guys. I’m thinking there’s less of these big men who are capable of giving you a double-double a night so you might have to reach to get one. This guy, though, has grown to into one of the top five players from this draft.

2012 NBA Draft

Player: Anthony Davis, 19.7 PTS, 9.5 BOARDS, 30.5 WS, 1st Pick to the then New Orleans Hornets

For a number one pick, Davis has exceeded expectations. No one could have predicted the meteoric rise of the once lengthy, skinny kid from Chicago. His point totals have jumped from 13.5 his first season to 24.4 this past year and he’s averaging nearly three blocks a game. As the focal point for the Pelicans, he has taken them from the lottery to 8th Place in the West and doesn’t look to be slowing down. He’s the type of player that needs one more superstar to make the team a legit contender and I’m sure it won’t be tough to convince someone to come play with him (KD?? RW??).  Davis has everything you want out of a superstar big man, 75 % when close to the basket and a developing mid range that is close to 50%. People wouldn’t mind drafting big men if they knew they were getting the next Davis. The scary thing is, he’s only 22. 

Player: Andre Drummond, 12.1 PTS, 11.8 BOARDS, 22 WS, 9TH Pick to the Detroit Pistons

You have to remind yourself that Drummond is only 21. It seems like he’s been around for so long or maybe it’s just the years in Detroit wearing on him. He’s a classic post player but can carve out a nice spot in this league with rebounding, stout defense, and a few buckets a game. Him and Monroe have been sheltered in the losing cocoon of Detroit and are both due to get a big payday because of their numbers. Monroe won’t be staying in Motown but maybe Stan Van Gundy can work his magic and convince Drummond that he can be a part of something special and a main centerpiece. He’s not a bad building block to have.

2013 NBA Draft

Player: Nerlens Noel, 9.9 PTS, 8.1 BOARDS, 6TH Pick New Orleans Hornets

Any draft is basically a crapshoot and no other draft epitomized that more than the 2013 NBA Draft.  The rookie of the year was the 11th pick and the best guy from the draft might end up being the 6th pick and the man who didn’t even play the 2013-2014 season. Noel was the second of four Kentucky big men to go in the top ten within the best four drafts and it seems like that school is finding a way to develop long, athletic defensive big man (if you can all one year in school developing). They might not all develop the same offensive prowess as an Anthony Davis but they all fall into the rim protector that more teams want their bigs to be. Teams are finding a way to get the scoring from somewhere else. Whatever the Sixers are doing, they need to make it a point to hold on to Noel. He was long touted as the number 1 prospect in this draft and if not for injury probably would have gone there. It’s too early to call but it seems that people might look back on this draft and wonder how Noel slipped to being picked after the likes of Cody Zeller, Otto Potter and Alex Len.

2014 NBA Draft

It’s all too early to tell. This draft has two potential guys who could start filling up the state sheet in Jabari Parker and Julius Randle but we’ll have to see how they recover from injury. They aren’t the classic big men as well as they’re a little smaller and more in the power forward mold but they could still develop into solid players. Parker especially has the offensive skill set to do something special in Milwaukee and no one can forget the tenacity Randle showed during the 2014 NCAA Tournament. 

                                                                                                                                                                                             

The names have changed, from Bynum to Oden to Davis back to Griffin and even Jahill Okafor but at the end of the day the largest change has been in the expectations surrounding the leagues big men. Teams used to want that special breed that could average 20 and 10 and it took them a while to realize how rare and special a Duncan or an O’Neal was. A big man now-a-days will only be asked to do this in special cases but it still does not make a low double double (10 PTS and 10 BOARDS) less valuable.  The world’s full of sharpshooters or someone who can give you 18 points a night but there’s less and less players coming through that will throw elbows to keep the play alive. I’d say their more valuable than someone who’s just going to hang out in the corner but as with any NBA Draft, it’s all up in the air.

Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Is Big Better? (Strategy of the NBA Draft Part 1)

“Because I’m not 7-foot. That’s about it.”-D’Angelo Russell

In the ever involving landscape of professional basketball where a team won a championship with the center averaging 2 PTS and 5.7 boards in the championship series, there might not be a better quote that sums up the mindset of the lucky GMs who get to pick at the top of drafts.  From 2004 until now six out of the twelve number 1 overall selections have been big men. Ah...that nebulous term. What is a big man? Is it Yao Ming, Dwight Howard, Magic Johnson (who played center as a rookie) or even Draymond Green, one of the between 6-7 and 6-9 hybrid athletes that seem to be taking the league by storm. It’s an evolving question that, depending on the team you follow or the style you like, has many different definitions. The big men we’re going to see here have these defining traits:

·         6’9 or higher in height
·         Has primarily a low post to mid range jumper type of game (Sorry but Dirk is in a whole other category by himself)
·         Over their career they have averaged between 7 and 15 total boards a game (If you’re not throwing elbows down low you can’t be a big man)
·         Top 10 NBA Draft Pick within the past 11 years (because if anyone expected anything out of Pavel Podkolzin, then top 10 picks wouldn’t matter)

In a few years we’ll be able to talk about Jahill Okafor and Karl Anthony Towns but, for now, we’ll just have to judge them on their draft night suits. The number one pick in my book is Rondae Hollis-Jefferson.

Now, does a team need a “big man” to find success? Does it make sense in an era where three point shot attempts are raising as fast Chris Pratt’s sex appeal that a team can win anymore by throwing it down low and letting their big man do the work? I don’t know and that’s why I had to use the great Basketball Reference to find out.

2004 NBA Draft

Player: Dwight Howard, 1st Pick Orlando Magic, 18.1 PTS, 12.7 RBS, WS (estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player) 106.7 (inserted for all you analytics out there)

The last high school player to go number 1, Howard has lived up to the expectations. Say what you want about the fiasco in L.A. or the current injury issues (the guys 6-11), if you’re able to go out and average a double-double in this league you’re doing something right.  People forget (and I forgot) that Howard won three straight Defensive Player of the Year Awards from 2008 to 2011 and led the league in total rebounding from 2005 to 2010.  He even somehow managed to lead a team that included Rafer Alston, Tony Battle and Mickael Pietrus to the 2009 NBA Finals (beating LBJ in the Eastern Conference Finals none the less)!  The rest of the top 10 includes recent champs Shaun Livingston and Andre Iguodala as well as a solid and underappreciated Luol Deng but it speaks volumes when he was able to get the Magic to a title five years after being drafted. His value is shown even more by how much the Magic have struggled since he left. They are still recovering, rolling around in a constant ping pong cage of rebuilding years.

Player:  Emeka Okafor, 2nd Pick Charlotte Bobcats, 12.3 PTS, 9.9 RBS, WS 44.3

He’s in possession of one of the cooler sounding names in the NBA and is a remnant of a great UCONN championship team that included Ben Gordon but there’s not much else going on here. For one, he got stuck on a Bobcats team that didn’t win more than 35 games until he was five seasons in and he was given the distinction of being compared to Howard throughout his career.  Any other big man would have been fine with a double-double his first five years in the league but it doesn’t matter if you’re losing constantly. The Bobcats management were not too inclined to surround Okafor with anyone else to make life easier but luckily the 2004 draft class is built on a heaping offering of quality bench players and not superstars.  In that regard, Okafor did well for himself and you can’t hold a player accountable for his team’s organizational problems. He didn’t choose to be drafted by the 21st Century version of the Clippers.

2005 NBA Draft

Player: Andrew Bogut, 1st Pick Milwaukee Bucks, PTS 10.9. 9.2 RBS, WS 43.8

This is where it gets interesting. The aforementioned Aussie was the consensus top overall pick that year. He had the size and defensive skills that General Managers salivate over. His points per game rose from 9.4 to 14.3 his first three years and his rebounding was close to 10 by that time. If he had been in the any other draft, Bogurt would have been considered a success but when the best point guard in the league (back then, today and for another three years) was taken by the Hornets at number 4 everyone is going to say the Bucks blew this one.  Bogut has developed into a great role player who can start or come off the bench to offer a big body to get 7 or so boards a game and dish out a nice looking assist or two but....he isn’t a Chris Paul.

Player: Andrew Bynum, 10th Pick Los Angeles Lakers, PTS 11.5, 7.7 RBS, WS 37.4

In what will become a common theme for some big men we have to beg the question, what if? The Lakers have a royal lineage of big men that goes from Wilt to Karem to Shaq and to Pau.  For a fleeting two year period from 2010 to 2012, where Bynum went from 11.3 points a game to 18.7 and upped his total rebounds to 11.8 (even making an All-Star game in 2012), I was among the hoard of loyal Laker fans who could see Kobe Bryant passing the great MJ with seven titles on the coattails of the next dominant center, Andrew Bynum. Ah, but alas, the best laid plans always have a way of never working out. After a knee injury and a trade to a Sixers team that he would never play a single game for, Bynum faded into the bellows of bad NBA afores and whatever the hell this is. The mere mention of his name will forever haunt me as I muse over the legacy of Kobe Bryant.  But, the 2005 Draft did give the Lakers Ronny Turiaf and that has to count for something (insert sarcasm).

2006 NBA Draft

This draft is almost as notable for its top 10 letdowns as it is for the one big man who meets our traits. Andrea Bargnani was selected number one at 7 feet tall and struggled to pull down 5 boards a game. The Raptors were trying to find the next Dirk and instead got stuck with someone who averages about as many boards as Rondo (4.7).  If you want to win some money, because I don’t think anyone would believe you, bet your buddy that Shelden Williams was a top five pick.  I didn’t know and the Hawks definitely want to forget they selected Candance Parkers husband at number 5 that year. Who knows, maybe one day he will redeem himself by producing a basketball protégé because we all know Parker’s got game.

Other Forgettable Picks: Patrick O’Bryant 9th Pick to Golden State (no luck of the Irish),Mouhamend Sene 10th pick to Seattle Supersonics

Player: LaMarcus Aldridge, 2nd Pick Chicago Bulls, 19.4 PTS, 8.4 Boards, WS 69.4

I am reminded of the possibility that maybe, just maybe, we could have had a Jokiam Noah, Derrick Rose and Aldridge line-up in Chicago (this is all without taking into account the space time continuum and the butterfly effect). If Aldridge stays in Chicago, they probably don’t even get that number one pick that turns into Rose. Regardless of these back-to future senseless “what-if” ramblings that NFL.com gets by filling their off season articles with (2010, 2011, 2012 Draft Redo REALLY???)  Aldridge would end up contributing the most to his team out of the stinky top 10 he was involved in (cue Adam Morrison Mustache ). Brandon Roy was something and is one of those players you feel bad for, like one of our later big men Mr. Greg Oden. Aldridge has been an All-Star the past four years and is looking as of this morning will be taking his talents to the evil empire Spurs. Whether he can keep up his 20 or higher PTS a game with 8 or more boards to go with it remains to be seen. He might realize life is easier with a young, dominant point guard like Damian Lillard instead of an aging Tony Parker.

2007 NBA Draft

Player: Greg Oden, 1st Pick Portland Trail Blazers, 8 PTS, 6.2 BOARDS, WS 7.3

Now we get to the big man who reminded us of Sam Bowie over Jordan and the biggest concern whenever you’re talking about freaks of nature (really, I don’t humans are meant to be that tall or that big): health. He doesn’t have the boards to make this list but it Is because of Greg Oden that the question of big man vs everything else was again brought to the forefront of the discussion on NBA draft methodology. You could say that before Oden, being freakish tall brought you a lot more than it does now. Before Oden, there isn’t even any discussion about Okafor not going number 1.
I’m a softie at heart so whenever I think of Greg Oden I get as solemn and down trodden as his mugshot. The guy got a raw deal and two knees that weren’t built for his body. For Shaq they worked and for Yao Ming they worked (the foot did him in). For Bowie and Oden, it just wasn’t in the cards. Like Bowie, Oden also has to live under the unfortunate circumstances of being the guy who was picked ahead of Kevin Durant, Al Horford, Mike Conley, and Joakim Noah. One is a budding superstar (if the foot doesn’t derail him) and the others are all in for long, fruitful NBA careers. Hindsight is 20/20 and after all this the Blazers wished they had a crystal ball.

Player:  Al Horford, 3rd Pick Atlanta Hawks, 14.2 PTS, 9.2 BOARDS, WS 54.7

It took a while for it to come but Horford, with the recent Hawk success, is starting to get the praise he deserves. Now of course this depends on what you think the value of a 3rd Pick is and what it should do for you (which is a whole other discussion) but by my estimation, Horford has lived up to the pick. Early on, he was a double-double machine and, as his scoring increased and the midrange came into his game more, the point totals jumped and the boards only sagged a little (last season 8.4). He doesn’t say much and not much was said of him until the Hawks surprised anyone and took the East number 1 seed into the playoffs. It will probably continue this way and, a few years down the road, we’ll look back and wonder how we never noticed him.

Player: Joakim Noah, 9th Pick Chicago Bulls, 9.6 PTS, 9.5 BOARDS, WS 56.8

Noah has mentioned to stay squarely in the spotlight since he emerged on the scene as a rangy force on the Florida Gator team that won back to back championships. Ever since he decided to stay in school with his follow Gators and go for the at second ring (sure, the co-eds had nothing to do with that) he has held a special place in my heart.  He’s always one to talk trash and say the things about Cleveland that no one else wants to say, which has elevated him to an almost poor man’s Dennis Rodman (because no one will a Dennis Rodman). He’s got one Defensive Player of the Year Award and will probably get a few more before it’s all said and done. Sure, maybe you want some more offense or less (depending on how he’s shooting) but he’s instant energy and there’s no one that leaves it out on the floor like Noah.  He was already a legend on draft night as he offered us the physical, tangible version of Sideshow Bob in a suit.
Where have you gone Spencer Hawes?
A nation yearns to turn their eyes toward you

2008 NBA Draft

Player: Kevin Love, 5th Pick to the Timberwolves, 18.7 PTS, 11.8 BOARDS, 55.7 WS

All I remember about Kevin Love from college was the oultet pass talk, as if that were something kids growing up would remember about a player. Some people thought he was undersized and figured there was no way he would pull down the boards in college but, as any rec league bball coach would tell you, Just box out and you have a shot! He racked up the stats and, if he hadn’t been on a floundering team stuck in the tough Western Conference, he might have even garnered serious MVP consideration. It’s tough to say he was a success for the T-Wolves but I’m also not going to blame him for being stuck in a bad situation and getting out. (déjà vu Kevin Garnett) After this past year in Cleveland I’m unsure if he can fit with another superstar and put up the numbers that he did. The jury is still out on that experiment and Love might find himself in that awkward position of being spread out to shot on the edge because he’s playing with more ball dominant guards a la Chris Bosh. It takes a while for a team to gel and I think if Love and James can build trust, LBJ will set him up for a long time.

A reminder for Knicks fans that Gallinari 2 and 4.9 boards his first two seasons in NYC. He upped his point total to a respectable 15.1 a game but if you want to be the next Dirk and make up for the lack of board numbers, you have to at least put up 20.

Player: Brook Lopez, 10th Pick to the New Jersey Nets, 17.9 PTS, 7.3 BOARDS, 38.6 WS

His brother is more recognizable but Brook is the more complete player. He’s had two seasons where he’s averaged 20 points a game and has an average field goal percentage of .511.  Two of his seven seasons have been cut drastically short by injuries and you can’t count on him to evaluate a team to a contender even in the weak Eastern conference.  Lopez is a solid player but this draft had too much big man value late on to say that he was worth the 10th overall pick. Now, in a draft class with Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook it’s going to be tough for the big men to take center stage but it should be noted that big men later on in the draft are in a better spot than Lopez. Serge Ibaka has developed into a key defensive hog for the Thunder and has numbers that rival Al Horfords and gives you 3.3 blocks per game on top of that.  DeAndre Jordan looks like a steal in the second round and with the Clippers getting better and better is due to continue increasing his point average and remain amazing on the boards (13.6 and 15 BOARDS per game the past two years). This is the first draft that showed quality big men could be had in the second round but, Lopez and Love still were good bets as only two players, Rose and Westbrook, can be considered great players from the top 10.

2009 NBA Draft

Player: Blake Griffin, 21.5 PTS, 9.7 BOARDS, 50.9 WS, 1st Pick to Los Angeles Clippers

Griffin stood out as an athletic freak in college and has offered plenty of highlights to support that claim. The number one touting was more based off that than any sort of developed post-game or typical big man qualities. Griffin was drafted because of what he could possibly develop into which was a hybrid, athletic big man who could shoot a high percentage from the rim and midrange and....facilitate. Most really good big men separate themselves by being great passers and Griffin just averaged 5.3 assists per game for the 2014-2015 season. On two point field goals total he shoots close to fifty percent every year and around 75% when he’s less than 3 feet in. He has been one of the major reasons the Clippers are no the hottest team in LA and a regular contender. As he continues to hone his game, I see him developing into a regular MVP candidate as the years go on. It’s tough to say the Clippers went wrong with this one (which isn’t what you can say for a lot of Clipper number one picks).

Player: Hasheem Thabeet, 2.2 PTS, 2.7 BOARDS, 2nd Pick to Memphis Grizzles


For a guy who averaged 10.3 PTS and 8.5 Boards a game in college, I think the expectations did not match what realistically Thabeet could come in and do. But...hindsight is always 20/20.  The Grizzles brought him in expecting a great defensive and rebounding presence and weren’t able to coax any of those things out of him.  If you get sent down to the D-League after getting picked number 2, clearly there’s more going on with you than was anticipated. When you see James Harden, Stephen Curry and DeMar Rozan were taken after this guy you wonder what Memphis was thinking. It seems ludicrous now to value a seventh footer as a defensive specialist over a pure scorer or jump shooting specialist. But, to soften the blow, I think it is the rare case where three guys from the top 10 exceeded expectations. No one thought that the two MVP candidates out of this top 10 would end up being Curry and Harden. As with Greg Oden and Sam Bowie, it sucks for Thabeet that a team took a chance on him before these two All Stars.